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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Leeds

T T S T T

1–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 36%

27%

45%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

64%

45%

Both score Ø 41%

45%

36%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,8

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,79 xG 1,58

48% Possession 52%

14 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

4 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 16

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 18. · Aston Villa 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+15	+13.2	26
2	Chelsea	12	7	2	3	+12	+8.2	23
3	Man City	12	7	1	4	+14	+9.3	22
4	Crystal Palace	12	5	5	2	+7	+6.0	20
5	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+3	+2.9	19
6	Sunderland	12	5	4	3	+3	-4.9	19
7	Bournemouth	12	5	4	3	-1	+1.7	19
8	Tottenham	11	5	3	3	+9	-4.2	18
9	Aston Villa	11	5	3	3	+3	-5.1	18
10	Man United	11	5	3	3	+1	+1.7	18
11	Liverpool	12	6	0	6	-2	+4.3	18
12	Brentford	12	5	1	6	-1	+3.8	16
13	Everton	11	4	3	4	-1	-0.8	15
14	Newcastle	12	4	3	5	-2	+1.5	15
15	Fulham	12	4	2	6	-3	-1.8	14
16	Nott'm Forest	12	3	3	6	-7	-3.2	12
17	West Ham	12	3	2	7	-10	-7.7	11
18	Leeds	11	3	2	6	-10	-1.8	11
19	Burnley	12	3	1	8	-10	-17.0	10
20	Wolves	12	0	2	10	-20	-6.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	6	5	0	1	+12	+7.1	15
2	Brighton	6	4	2	0	+6	+2.6	14
3	Bournemouth	6	4	2	0	+6	+5.8	14
4	Arsenal	5	4	1	0	+11	+7.1	13
5	Fulham	6	4	1	1	+6	+2.3	13
6	Brentford	6	4	1	1	+5	+2.3	13
7	Aston Villa	6	4	1	1	+5	-2.1	13
8	Sunderland	6	3	3	0	+6	-0.5	12
9	Man United	5	4	0	1	+5	+5.3	12
10	Newcastle	6	4	0	2	+3	+3.4	12
11	Liverpool	6	4	0	2	+2	+3.3	12
12	Everton	6	3	2	1	+2	+1.8	11
13	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	+3.6	10
14	Crystal Palace	6	2	4	0	+3	+5.3	10
15	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.6	8
16	Burnley	6	2	1	3	-1	-8.0	7
17	Nott'm Forest	6	2	1	3	-3	+2.0	7
18	West Ham	6	2	0	4	-7	-3.2	6
19	Tottenham	6	1	2	3	+0	-3.2	5
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-10	-0.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+9	+4.6	13
2	Tottenham	5	4	1	0	+9	-1.0	13
3	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+4	+6.1	13
4	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	+4	+0.7	10
5	Man City	6	2	1	3	+2	+2.2	7
6	Sunderland	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.4	7
7	Man United	6	1	3	2	-4	-3.7	6
8	Liverpool	6	2	0	4	-4	+1.0	6
9	Aston Villa	5	1	2	2	-2	-3.0	5
10	West Ham	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.6	5
11	Brighton	6	1	2	3	-3	+0.3	5
12	Nott'm Forest	6	1	2	3	-4	-5.3	5
13	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-7	-4.1	5
14	Everton	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.6	4
15	Newcastle	6	0	3	3	-5	-1.9	3
16	Brentford	6	1	0	5	-6	+1.5	3
17	Burnley	6	1	0	5	-9	-9.0	3
18	Leeds	6	1	0	5	-11	-6.3	3
19	Fulham	6	0	1	5	-9	-4.1	1
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-10	-5.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.