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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Leeds

S S U S U

0–4

Full-time

Man City

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,7

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+2,0

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 50%

24%

76%

Points per game

1,0

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

64%

55%

Both score Ø 47%

58%

36%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

1,2

2,4

Conceded

2,1

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

41% Possession 59%

7 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 3

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 17. · Man City 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	34	25	7	2	+64	82
2	Man City	33	25	5	3	+59	80
3	Chelsea	33	19	9	5	+40	66
4	Arsenal	33	19	3	11	+12	60
5	Tottenham	33	18	4	11	+18	58
6	Man United	35	15	10	10	+2	55
7	West Ham	34	15	7	12	+8	52
8	Wolves	34	15	4	15	+1	49
9	Brighton	35	10	14	11	-8	44
10	Newcastle	35	11	10	14	-16	43
11	Leicester	32	11	9	12	-4	42
12	Crystal Palace	34	9	14	11	+3	41
13	Aston Villa	33	12	4	17	-2	40
14	Brentford	34	11	7	16	-8	40
15	Southampton	35	9	13	13	-17	40
16	Burnley	34	7	13	14	-15	34
17	Leeds	33	8	10	15	-30	34
18	Everton	32	8	5	19	-21	29
19	Watford	34	6	4	24	-37	22
20	Norwich	34	5	6	23	-49	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	14	3	0	+38	45
2	Man City	17	13	2	2	+37	41
3	Arsenal	17	11	2	4	+13	35
4	Man United	18	9	5	4	+7	32
5	Tottenham	16	10	1	5	+13	31
6	West Ham	17	9	4	4	+8	31
7	Chelsea	16	8	5	3	+14	29
8	Leicester	16	8	4	4	+6	28
9	Newcastle	18	7	6	5	-3	27
10	Southampton	18	6	7	5	+0	25
11	Crystal Palace	17	5	8	4	+8	23
12	Everton	16	7	2	7	+1	23
13	Wolves	17	7	2	8	-1	23
14	Aston Villa	16	6	3	7	+1	21
15	Brentford	17	6	3	8	-1	21
16	Burnley	17	5	6	6	-4	21
17	Leeds	16	4	5	7	-12	17
18	Brighton	17	3	7	7	-10	16
19	Norwich	17	3	3	11	-22	12
20	Watford	17	2	1	14	-25	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	3	1	+22	39
2	Liverpool	17	11	4	2	+26	37
3	Chelsea	17	11	4	2	+26	37
4	Brighton	18	7	7	4	+2	28
5	Tottenham	17	8	3	6	+5	27
6	Wolves	17	8	2	7	+2	26
7	Arsenal	16	8	1	7	-1	25
8	Man United	17	6	5	6	-5	23
9	West Ham	17	6	3	8	+0	21
10	Aston Villa	17	6	1	10	-3	19
11	Brentford	17	5	4	8	-7	19
12	Crystal Palace	17	4	6	7	-5	18
13	Leeds	17	4	5	8	-18	17
14	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-13	16
15	Watford	17	4	3	10	-12	15
16	Southampton	17	3	6	8	-17	15
17	Leicester	16	3	5	8	-10	14
18	Burnley	17	2	7	8	-11	13
19	Norwich	17	2	3	12	-27	9
20	Everton	16	1	3	12	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.