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Eredivisie

Referee: A Bos

Utrecht

U S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Waalwijk

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Waalwijk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,7

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,8

0,3

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 6/7 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,7

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

67%

71%

Both score Ø 63%

83%

43%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

1,8

0,4

Conceded

1,0

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,55 xG 0,86

64% Possession 36%

23 Shots 3

8 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 0

8 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Utrecht 2. · Waalwijk 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+22	+12.1	24
2	Utrecht	6	5	1	0	+5	-1.2	16
3	Twente	7	4	2	1	+8	+9.0	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+5	+6.3	13
5	Willem II	8	3	2	3	+2	-4.3	11
6	Ajax	5	3	1	1	+7	+5.5	10
7	Feyenoord	6	2	4	0	+6	+6.3	10
8	Sparta Rotterdam	8	2	4	2	+0	-0.9	10
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	1	3	-3	+3.5	10
10	Groningen	7	2	3	2	+2	-3.6	9
11	Heracles	7	2	3	2	-3	-0.6	9
12	NAC Breda	8	3	0	5	-8	-6.5	9
13	Heerenveen	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.3	7
14	Nijmegen	8	2	1	5	-2	-4.6	7
15	Zwolle	7	2	1	4	-3	-4.6	7
16	For Sittard	7	2	1	4	-6	-3.3	7
17	Almere City	8	0	2	6	-17	-4.0	2
18	Waalwijk	7	0	0	7	-16	-8.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.5	12
2	Utrecht	3	3	0	0	+3	+1.3	9
3	NAC Breda	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.4	9
4	Twente	4	2	2	0	+3	+8.1	8
5	Heerenveen	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.9	7
6	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.0	6
7	Willem II	4	2	0	2	+2	-0.2	6
8	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
9	Groningen	4	1	2	1	+2	-2.8	5
10	Heracles	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.8	5
11	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+2	+4.1	4
12	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.8	4
13	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.6	4
14	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
15	Sparta Rotterdam	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.0	3
16	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.9	3
17	Almere City	5	0	1	4	-13	-0.9	1
18	Waalwijk	4	0	0	4	-7	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+12	+6.6	12
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.8	10
3	Utrecht	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.5	7
4	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.9	7
5	Twente	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.0	6
6	Feyenoord	4	1	3	0	+4	+2.3	6
7	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	0	2	-3	+0.7	6
8	Willem II	4	1	2	1	+0	-4.2	5
9	Ajax	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.5	4
10	Groningen	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
11	Heracles	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.5	4
12	For Sittard	4	1	1	2	-4	-4.3	4
13	Nijmegen	4	1	0	3	-1	-4.0	3
14	Zwolle	3	0	1	2	-2	-4.5	1
15	Almere City	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.1	1
16	Heerenveen	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.2	0
17	Waalwijk	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.6	0
18	NAC Breda	4	0	0	4	-10	-6.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.