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Championship

Referee: L Smith

Portsmouth

T T T U T

1–1

Full-time

Oxford

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portsmouth Oxford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

2,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 19%

38%

Points per game

0,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

75%

63%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

Average goals

3,4

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,4

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,76 xG 1,37

54% Possession 46%

21 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

11 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Portsmouth 23. · Oxford 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	9	6	1	2	+10	+2.9	19
2	Sheffield United	8	5	3	0	+7	+3.7	18
3	Burnley	8	5	2	1	+10	+1.8	17
4	Leeds	9	4	4	1	+8	+8.8	16
5	West Brom	8	5	1	2	+6	+5.3	16
6	Blackburn	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.9	15
7	Middlesbrough	8	4	2	2	+4	+8.0	14
8	Watford	8	4	1	3	-1	-3.3	13
9	Hull	8	3	3	2	+3	+0.2	12
10	Norwich	8	3	3	2	+2	+2.9	12
11	Oxford	8	3	2	3	+2	-2.2	11
12	Swansea	8	3	2	3	+2	-4.4	11
13	Bristol City	8	2	4	2	-4	+1.2	10
14	Derby	8	3	0	5	-2	-1.8	9
15	Stoke	8	3	0	5	-2	-1.9	9
16	Millwall	8	2	2	4	+1	+6.5	8
17	Coventry	8	2	2	4	-2	+3.2	8
18	Plymouth	8	2	2	4	-4	-9.4	8
19	Sheffield Weds	8	2	2	4	-5	-2.3	8
20	Luton	8	2	2	4	-5	+2.0	8
21	Preston	8	2	2	4	-5	-5.4	8
22	QPR	8	1	4	3	-5	-1.7	7
23	Portsmouth	8	0	4	4	-11	-8.4	4
24	Cardiff	8	1	1	6	-14	-6.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	5	4	1	0	+8	+1.4	13
2	Blackburn	4	4	0	0	+8	+2.8	12
3	Burnley	4	3	1	0	+7	+1.2	10
4	Watford	4	3	1	0	+5	+2.2	10
5	Oxford	4	3	1	0	+5	-0.2	10
6	Sheffield United	4	3	1	0	+3	+3.8	10
7	Derby	4	3	0	1	+4	+0.6	9
8	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+4	+1.2	8
9	Middlesbrough	4	2	2	0	+3	+7.1	8
10	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.6	8
11	Leeds	4	2	1	1	+4	+5.2	7
12	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.3	7
13	Plymouth	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.6	7
14	Preston	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.1	7
15	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+1	+3.5	7
16	Stoke	4	2	0	2	+3	+1.2	6
17	Norwich	4	1	3	0	+3	+2.6	6
18	Millwall	4	2	0	2	+3	+5.5	6
19	Coventry	4	2	0	2	+2	+4.1	6
20	Hull	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.2	5
21	Luton	4	1	1	2	-3	+1.3	4
22	Cardiff	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
23	QPR	4	0	2	2	-4	+1.1	2
24	Portsmouth	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	4	3	0	1	+5	+1.8	9
2	Leeds	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.6	9
3	Sheffield United	4	2	2	0	+4	-0.1	8
4	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.6	7
5	Hull	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.0	7
6	Sunderland	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.4	6
7	Middlesbrough	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.8	6
8	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.2	6
9	QPR	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.8	5
10	Luton	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.7	4
11	Swansea	4	1	0	3	-2	-5.5	3
12	Blackburn	4	0	3	1	-3	-1.9	3
13	Stoke	4	1	0	3	-5	-3.0	3
14	Watford	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.5	3
15	Millwall	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.9	2
16	Coventry	4	0	2	2	-4	-0.9	2
17	Portsmouth	4	0	2	2	-6	-5.2	2
18	Bristol City	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.5	2
19	Oxford	4	0	1	3	-3	-2.0	1
20	Plymouth	4	0	1	3	-6	-8.9	1
21	Preston	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.3	1
22	Sheffield Weds	4	0	1	3	-8	-5.7	1
23	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-9	-2.4	1
24	Derby	4	0	0	4	-6	-2.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.