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Eredivisie

Referee: S Gözübüyük

Utrecht

U U S U S

1–1

Full-time

Waalwijk

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Waalwijk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,77 xG 1,95

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 13. · Waalwijk 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	15	0	0	+46	+34.6	45
2	Feyenoord	15	11	2	2	+30	+29.7	35
3	AZ Alkmaar	15	10	3	2	+25	+14.6	33
4	Twente	15	10	3	2	+15	+12.2	33
5	Ajax	15	7	3	5	+5	+5.3	24
6	Go Ahead Eagles	14	6	3	5	+3	-7.6	21
7	Sparta Rotterdam	15	6	3	6	+0	-3.8	21
8	Nijmegen	15	5	5	5	+3	-11.6	20
9	Heerenveen	15	6	1	8	-5	-3.3	19
10	For Sittard	16	5	4	7	-11	-3.4	19
11	Zwolle	15	5	2	8	-5	-3.2	17
12	Excelsior	15	3	7	5	-5	-8.1	16
13	Utrecht	15	4	4	7	-9	-11.0	16
14	Heracles	15	4	3	8	-15	-8.2	15
15	Waalwijk	15	4	1	10	-13	-5.2	13
16	Almere City	15	3	4	8	-21	-9.1	13
17	Vitesse	15	3	2	10	-20	-10.8	11
18	Volendam	15	2	2	11	-23	-10.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+22	+20.3	24
2	Feyenoord	8	6	1	1	+18	+14.1	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	+18	+14.2	19
4	Twente	8	6	1	1	+6	+5.9	19
5	For Sittard	8	5	2	1	+6	+5.3	17
6	Go Ahead Eagles	8	5	1	2	+11	+3.6	16
7	Ajax	7	5	0	2	+9	+6.4	15
8	Heerenveen	7	4	1	2	+6	+6.4	13
9	Nijmegen	8	3	2	3	+5	+0.4	11
10	Heracles	7	3	1	3	-5	-3.5	10
11	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.5	8
12	Excelsior	7	1	4	2	-3	-2.3	7
13	Zwolle	8	2	1	5	-6	+1.6	7
14	Waalwijk	8	2	1	5	-7	-4.0	7
15	Volendam	7	2	1	4	-8	+1.2	7
16	Utrecht	7	1	3	3	-7	-4.9	6
17	Vitesse	7	1	2	4	-6	-2.0	5
18	Almere City	7	1	2	4	-12	-3.9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+24	+14.3	21
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+12	+15.6	16
3	Twente	7	4	2	1	+9	+6.3	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	7	4	2	1	+7	+0.4	14
5	Sparta Rotterdam	8	4	1	3	+3	-3.4	13
6	Zwolle	7	3	1	3	+1	-4.9	10
7	Utrecht	8	3	1	4	-2	-6.1	10
8	Excelsior	8	2	3	3	-2	-5.9	9
9	Nijmegen	7	2	3	2	-2	-11.9	9
10	Ajax	8	2	3	3	-4	-1.1	9
11	Almere City	8	2	2	4	-9	-5.2	8
12	Waalwijk	7	2	0	5	-6	-1.2	6
13	Heerenveen	8	2	0	6	-11	-9.7	6
14	Vitesse	8	2	0	6	-14	-8.8	6
15	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-8	-11.2	5
16	Heracles	8	1	2	5	-10	-4.6	5
17	For Sittard	8	0	2	6	-17	-8.6	2
18	Volendam	8	0	1	7	-15	-12.1	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.