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Bundesliga

Referee: C Dingert

St Pauli

T T T U S

0–3

Full-time

Mainz

U U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Pauli Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

20%

80%

Average goals

2,0

3,6

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,09 xG 1,10

55% Possession 45%

17 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 4

9 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Pauli 15. · Mainz 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.4	13
2	Ein Frankfurt	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.5	12
3	Freiburg	6	4	0	2	+2	+4.3	12
4	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+6	+1.0	11
5	Leverkusen	6	3	2	1	+4	+5.5	11
6	Union Berlin	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.3	11
7	Dortmund	6	3	1	2	+1	+0.0	10
8	Heidenheim	5	3	0	2	+3	+2.1	9
9	Stuttgart	5	2	2	1	+4	+4.0	8
10	Werder Bremen	6	2	2	2	-4	+0.1	8
11	Wolfsburg	6	2	1	3	+1	-2.4	7
12	Augsburg	6	2	1	3	-6	-0.2	7
13	M'gladbach	6	2	0	4	-3	-1.1	6
14	Mainz	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.1	5
15	St Pauli	5	1	1	3	-2	-2.1	4
16	Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-6	-5.3	3
17	Holstein Kiel	6	0	2	4	-10	-5.7	2
18	Bochum	6	0	1	5	-8	-8.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+6	+3.3	9
2	Union Berlin	3	3	0	0	+3	+2.1	9
3	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.9	7
4	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.1	7
5	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.4	6
6	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+0	+4.1	6
7	Stuttgart	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.3	4
8	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.9	4
9	Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.9	4
10	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
11	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.5	3
12	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.0	3
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.1	1
14	St Pauli	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
15	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.8	1
16	Bochum	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.4	1
17	Werder Bremen	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.3	1
18	Holstein Kiel	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+11	+6.5	9
2	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.5	7
3	Werder Bremen	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
4	Wolfsburg	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.3	6
5	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.4	6
6	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.1	6
7	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.1	6
8	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.2	4
9	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.9	4
10	Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
11	St Pauli	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.7	3
12	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
13	Holstein Kiel	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.6	2
14	Union Berlin	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
15	Dortmund	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.3	1
16	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.4	0
17	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.8	0
18	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-8	-4.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.