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Serie A
Referee: D Chiffi
Atalanta
S U T U S
5–1
Full-time
Genoa
T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Genoa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,2
2,0
Scored
1,5
0,5
Conceded
1,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,8
2,3
Scored
1,8
0,7
Conceded
2,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,65 xG 0,73
63% Possession 37%
23 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 15
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Atalanta 13. · Genoa 17.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Napoli 7 5 1 1 +9 +4.7 16
2 Udinese 7 4 1 2 +0 -3.8 13
3 Juventus 6 3 3 0 +9 +4.4 12
4 Milan 6 3 2 1 +7 +4.7 11
5 Inter 6 3 2 1 +6 +3.8 11
6 Torino 6 3 2 1 +2 -2.4 11
7 Empoli 6 2 4 0 +3 -1.8 10
8 Lazio 6 3 1 2 +2 +3.1 10
9 Roma 6 2 3 1 +3 +1.3 9
10 Verona 7 3 0 4 +0 -1.6 9
11 Como 7 2 2 3 -4 -0.9 8
12 Fiorentina 6 1 4 1 +0 +3.3 7
13 Atalanta 6 2 1 3 -1 +3.4 7
14 Bologna 6 1 4 1 -2 -0.9 7
15 Parma 6 1 2 3 -2 -0.8 5
16 Cagliari 6 1 2 3 -6 +0.1 5
17 Genoa 6 1 2 3 -6 -3.9 5
18 Lecce 7 1 2 4 -9 -3.5 5
19 Venezia 7 1 1 5 -7 -4.6 4
20 Monza 6 0 3 3 -4 -4.6 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Atalanta Genoa
1–0 M. Retegui
A. Lookman
24′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 A. Vogliacco
↦ M. Bani
2–0 M. Retegui
50′
3–0 Éderson
M. Retegui
60′
67′
🔁 F. Melegoni
↦ F. Miretti
67′
🔁 J. Ekhator
↦ A. Pinamonti
L. Samardžić 🔁
↦ C. De Ketelaere
68′
N. Zaniolo 🔁
↦ A. Lookman
68′
Lazar Samardžić ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
73′
4–0 M. Retegui
74′
M. Palestra 🔁
↦ R. Bellanova
78′
I. Sulemana 🔁
↦ Éderson
78′
5–0 M. de Roon
80′
81′
🔁 B. Norton-Cuffy
↦ Aarón Martín
V. Vlahović 🔁
↦ M. Retegui
82′
83′
J. Ekhator 5–1
F. Melegoni
86′
🔁 D. Ankeye
↦ Vítinha
Full-time 5–1

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
29 M. Carnesecchi G
15 M. de Roon D
4 I. Hien D
23 S. Kolašinac D
16 R. Bellanova M
13 Éderson M
8 M. Pašalić M
77 D. Zappacosta M
17 C. De Ketelaere F
11 A. Lookman F
32 M. Retegui F
Bench (10)
24 L. Samardžić
10 N. Zaniolo
27 M. Palestra
6 I. Sulemana
48 V. Vlahović
40 P. Comi
28 Rui Patrício
31 F. Rossi
7 J. Cuadrado
5 B. Godfrey

Coach: G. Gasperini

Genoa

3-5-2
95 P. Gollini G
4 K. De Winter D
13 M. Bani D
22 J. Vásquez D
59 A. Zanoli M
2 M. Thorsby M
8 E. Bohinen M
23 F. Miretti M
3 Aarón Martín M
9 Vítinha F
19 A. Pinamonti F
Bench (14)
14 A. Vogliacco
72 F. Melegoni
21 J. Ekhator
15 B. Norton-Cuffy
30 D. Ankeye
33 A. Matturro
39 D. Sommariva
27 A. Marcandalli
1 N. Leali
73 P. Masini
69 H. Ahanor
53 L. Kassa
20 S. Sabelli
55 F. Accornero

Coach: A. Gilardino

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,47
U
4,53
B
6,90
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,80
U2,5
2,04
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Chiffi · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.