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La Liga

Referee: Guillermo Cuadra

Real Madrid

S S S U T

2–0

Full-time

Villarreal

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,2

4,2

Scored

2,2

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 63%

63%

Points per game

2,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

38%

88%

Both score Ø 82%

63%

100%

Average goals

2,9

4,0

Scored

2,1

Conceded

0,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,47 xG 1,15

55% Possession 45%

11 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Villarreal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	7	0	1	+16	+9.5	21
2	Real Madrid	8	5	3	0	+11	+10.8	18
3	Villarreal	8	5	2	1	+2	+2.5	17
4	Ath Madrid	8	4	4	0	+8	+5.6	16
5	Osasuna	9	4	3	2	-1	-1.8	15
6	Ath Bilbao	8	4	2	2	+4	-0.3	14
7	Mallorca	9	4	2	3	+1	+2.4	14
8	Vallecano	9	3	4	2	+2	-1.1	13
9	Celta	9	4	1	4	+1	+1.2	13
10	Betis	8	3	3	2	+1	+6.4	12
11	Alaves	8	3	1	4	-1	+0.4	10
12	Espanol	9	3	1	5	-4	-9.5	10
13	Girona	8	2	3	3	-2	+4.6	9
14	Sevilla	8	2	3	3	-2	+0.5	9
15	Getafe	9	1	5	3	-1	+0.5	8
16	Sociedad	8	2	2	4	-1	-0.7	8
17	Leganes	9	1	5	3	-4	-5.3	8
18	Valencia	9	1	3	5	-8	-8.6	6
19	Valladolid	9	1	2	6	-14	-7.9	5
20	Las Palmas	9	0	3	6	-8	-9.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Osasuna	5	4	1	0	+5	+2.4	13
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+9	+8.2	12
3	Celta	5	3	1	1	+4	+1.5	10
4	Betis	5	3	1	1	+3	+5.9	10
5	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.5	9
6	Espanol	5	3	0	2	+1	-1.6	9
7	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+6	+6.0	8
8	Ath Bilbao	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.0	8
9	Alaves	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
10	Getafe	5	1	4	0	+2	+3.9	7
11	Villarreal	4	2	1	1	-1	+0.6	7
12	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.0	6
13	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.8	5
14	Valencia	4	1	2	1	+1	-1.7	5
15	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.2	5
16	Valladolid	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.1	5
17	Girona	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.7	4
18	Leganes	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.6	4
19	Sociedad	4	1	0	3	-1	+0.7	3
20	Las Palmas	5	0	3	2	-2	-4.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	4	0	1	+7	+4.1	12
2	Villarreal	4	3	1	0	+3	+2.0	10
3	Mallorca	5	3	0	2	+1	+2.6	9
4	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.4	8
5	Vallecano	5	2	2	1	+1	-3.0	8
6	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.7	6
7	Real Madrid	4	1	3	0	+2	+2.6	6
8	Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.4	5
9	Girona	5	1	2	2	-3	+1.0	5
10	Leganes	5	0	4	1	-2	-4.7	4
11	Sevilla	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.5	3
12	Celta	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.2	3
13	Alaves	5	1	0	4	-4	-0.3	3
14	Betis	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.4	2
15	Osasuna	4	0	2	2	-6	-4.3	2
16	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-3	-3.5	1
17	Espanol	4	0	1	3	-5	-7.9	1
18	Valencia	5	0	1	4	-9	-7.0	1
19	Las Palmas	4	0	0	4	-6	-4.9	0
20	Valladolid	4	0	0	4	-13	-7.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.