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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

AZ Alkmaar

S U S S S

1–2

Full-time

Utrecht

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Utrecht

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 80%

80%

Points per game

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

20%

80%

Average goals

1,6

2,8

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

0,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,04 xG 1,16

68% Possession 32%

22 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 3. · Utrecht 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+21	+12.4	21
2	Twente	7	4	2	1	+8	+9.0	14
3	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.4	13
4	Utrecht	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.7	13
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	+7	+5.5	10
6	Feyenoord	6	2	4	0	+6	+6.3	10
7	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	4	1	+1	-1.2	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	1	3	-3	+3.5	10
9	Groningen	7	2	3	2	+2	-3.6	9
10	Heracles	7	2	3	2	-3	-0.6	9
11	Willem II	7	2	2	3	+1	-3.0	8
12	Heerenveen	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.3	7
13	Nijmegen	7	2	1	4	-1	-3.7	7
14	Zwolle	7	2	1	4	-3	-4.6	7
15	For Sittard	7	2	1	4	-6	-3.3	7
16	NAC Breda	7	2	0	5	-9	-7.4	6
17	Almere City	7	0	2	5	-16	-5.3	2
18	Waalwijk	7	0	0	7	-16	-8.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.8	9
2	Utrecht	3	3	0	0	+3	+1.3	9
3	Twente	4	2	2	0	+3	+8.1	8
4	Heerenveen	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.9	7
5	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.0	6
6	Willem II	4	2	0	2	+2	-0.2	6
7	NAC Breda	3	2	0	1	+1	-1.3	6
8	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
9	Groningen	4	1	2	1	+2	-2.8	5
10	Heracles	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.8	5
11	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+2	+4.1	4
12	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.8	4
13	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.6	4
14	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
15	Sparta Rotterdam	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.0	3
16	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.9	3
17	Almere City	4	0	1	3	-12	-2.2	1
18	Waalwijk	4	0	0	4	-7	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+12	+6.6	12
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.8	10
3	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.2	7
4	Twente	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.0	6
5	Feyenoord	4	1	3	0	+4	+2.3	6
6	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	0	2	-3	+0.7	6
7	Ajax	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.5	4
8	Utrecht	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
9	Groningen	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
10	Heracles	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.5	4
11	For Sittard	4	1	1	2	-4	-4.3	4
12	Nijmegen	3	1	0	2	+0	-3.1	3
13	Willem II	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.8	2
14	Zwolle	3	0	1	2	-2	-4.5	1
15	Almere City	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.1	1
16	Heerenveen	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.2	0
17	Waalwijk	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.6	0
18	NAC Breda	4	0	0	4	-10	-6.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.