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Primeira Liga

Referee: David Silva

Arouca

S T T S T

1–1

Full-time

AVS

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca AVS

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 29%

14%

43%

Average goals

2,1

2,3

Scored

0,4

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,87 xG 2,03

64% Possession 36%

10 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 7

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 14. · AVS 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	7	0	0	+23	+16.8	21
2	Porto	7	6	0	1	+13	+11.6	18
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+12	+8.9	16
4	Santa Clara	8	5	0	3	+2	+6.2	15
5	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+8	+2.5	14
6	Famalicao	8	3	4	1	+5	-0.2	13
7	Guimaraes	7	4	1	2	+1	+1.9	13
8	Moreirense	8	3	2	3	-1	+1.8	11
9	Gil Vicente	8	2	4	2	-2	-2.6	10
10	Casa Pia	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.3	8
11	AVS	7	2	2	3	-4	-4.3	8
12	Rio Ave	8	2	2	4	-7	-4.8	8
13	Estoril	7	1	3	3	-6	-9.3	6
14	Arouca	7	2	0	5	-9	-8.8	6
15	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.1	5
16	Estrela	8	1	2	5	-8	-7.3	5
17	Nacional	7	1	2	4	-8	-1.0	5
18	Farense	7	0	1	6	-11	-9.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+11	+6.8	12
2	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	+12.4	12
3	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+7	+6.5	9
4	Santa Clara	4	3	0	1	+1	+4.3	9
5	Gil Vicente	4	2	2	0	+5	+2.5	8
6	Moreirense	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.2	8
7	Famalicao	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.1	8
8	Rio Ave	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.1	8
9	AVS	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.7	8
10	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.0	7
11	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	-1	+1.4	6
12	Casa Pia	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.4	4
13	Estrela	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.9	4
14	Estoril	4	1	1	2	-5	-6.6	4
15	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.6	3
16	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.7	3
17	Boavista	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.7	1
18	Farense	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+16	+10.3	12
2	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.5	7
3	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
4	Porto	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
5	Santa Clara	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.9	6
6	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+2	-2.3	5
7	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.1	4
8	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.4	4
9	Casa Pia	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.7	4
10	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-4	+1.9	3
11	Arouca	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.2	3
12	Estoril	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
13	Nacional	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.6	2
14	Gil Vicente	4	0	2	2	-7	-5.0	2
15	Farense	4	0	1	3	-4	-5.2	1
16	Estrela	4	0	1	3	-5	-4.4	1
17	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.6	0
18	Rio Ave	4	0	0	4	-9	-7.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.