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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Watford

U T T S T

2–1

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

75%

13%

Both score Ø 44%

63%

25%

Average goals

3,1

1,8

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,6

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,10 xG 1,86

38% Possession 62%

9 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 5

4 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 9. · Middlesbrough 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	9	6	1	2	+10	+2.9	19
2	Burnley	9	5	3	1	+10	+1.5	18
3	Sheffield United	8	5	3	0	+7	+3.7	18
4	Leeds	9	4	4	1	+8	+8.8	16
5	West Brom	8	5	1	2	+6	+5.3	16
6	Norwich	9	4	3	2	+6	+5.7	15
7	Blackburn	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.9	15
8	Middlesbrough	8	4	2	2	+4	+8.0	14
9	Watford	8	4	1	3	-1	-3.3	13
10	Oxford	9	3	3	3	+2	-2.6	12
11	Hull	9	3	3	3	-1	-2.6	12
12	Swansea	8	3	2	3	+2	-4.4	11
13	Bristol City	8	2	4	2	-4	+1.2	10
14	Derby	8	3	0	5	-2	-1.8	9
15	Stoke	8	3	0	5	-2	-1.9	9
16	Preston	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.0	9
17	Millwall	8	2	2	4	+1	+6.5	8
18	Coventry	8	2	2	4	-2	+3.2	8
19	Plymouth	8	2	2	4	-4	-9.4	8
20	Sheffield Weds	8	2	2	4	-5	-2.3	8
21	Luton	8	2	2	4	-5	+2.0	8
22	QPR	8	1	4	3	-5	-1.7	7
23	Portsmouth	9	0	5	4	-11	-8.1	5
24	Cardiff	8	1	1	6	-14	-6.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	5	4	1	0	+8	+1.4	13
2	Blackburn	4	4	0	0	+8	+2.8	12
3	Burnley	5	3	2	0	+7	+0.9	11
4	Watford	4	3	1	0	+5	+2.2	10
5	Oxford	4	3	1	0	+5	-0.2	10
6	Sheffield United	4	3	1	0	+3	+3.8	10
7	Norwich	5	2	3	0	+7	+5.5	9
8	Derby	4	3	0	1	+4	+0.6	9
9	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+4	+1.2	8
10	Middlesbrough	4	2	2	0	+3	+7.1	8
11	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.6	8
12	Leeds	4	2	1	1	+4	+5.2	7
13	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.3	7
14	Plymouth	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.6	7
15	Preston	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.1	7
16	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+1	+3.5	7
17	Stoke	4	2	0	2	+3	+1.2	6
18	Millwall	4	2	0	2	+3	+5.5	6
19	Coventry	4	2	0	2	+2	+4.1	6
20	Hull	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.2	5
21	Luton	4	1	1	2	-3	+1.3	4
22	Portsmouth	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.9	3
23	Cardiff	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
24	QPR	4	0	2	2	-4	+1.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	4	3	0	1	+5	+1.8	9
2	Leeds	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.6	9
3	Sheffield United	4	2	2	0	+4	-0.1	8
4	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.6	7
5	Hull	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.9	7
6	Sunderland	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.4	6
7	Middlesbrough	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.8	6
8	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.2	6
9	QPR	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.8	5
10	Luton	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.7	4
11	Swansea	4	1	0	3	-2	-5.5	3
12	Blackburn	4	0	3	1	-3	-1.9	3
13	Stoke	4	1	0	3	-5	-3.0	3
14	Watford	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.5	3
15	Millwall	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.9	2
16	Oxford	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.4	2
17	Coventry	4	0	2	2	-4	-0.9	2
18	Portsmouth	4	0	2	2	-6	-5.2	2
19	Bristol City	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.5	2
20	Preston	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.9	2
21	Plymouth	4	0	1	3	-6	-8.9	1
22	Sheffield Weds	4	0	1	3	-8	-5.7	1
23	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-9	-2.4	1
24	Derby	4	0	0	4	-6	-2.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.