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Eredivisie

Referee: B Nijhuis

Waalwijk

T T T T S

2–2

Full-time

Excelsior

T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Waalwijk Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,8

4,2

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 12/13 matches

Win Ø 28%

33%

23%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

58%

77%

Both score Ø 60%

42%

77%

Average goals

2,6

3,6

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,73 xG 0,90

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 4

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Waalwijk 15. · Excelsior 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	13	0	0	+43	+30.1	39
2	Feyenoord	13	10	2	1	+29	+27.6	32
3	AZ Alkmaar	12	9	2	1	+23	+12.5	29
4	Twente	13	8	3	2	+11	+7.8	27
5	Go Ahead Eagles	12	6	3	3	+7	-6.8	21
6	Heerenveen	14	6	1	7	-3	+0.8	19
7	Sparta Rotterdam	13	5	3	5	+0	-1.4	18
8	Zwolle	14	5	2	7	-3	-3.6	17
9	Ajax	12	4	3	5	+2	-0.4	15
10	Excelsior	13	3	6	4	-3	-4.2	15
11	Heracles	13	4	3	6	-12	-8.3	15
12	For Sittard	13	3	4	6	-11	-3.4	13
13	Almere City	14	3	4	7	-18	-8.2	13
14	Utrecht	13	3	3	7	-11	-11.3	12
15	Waalwijk	12	4	0	8	-11	-4.7	12
16	Nijmegen	11	2	5	4	-2	-8.1	11
17	Vitesse	13	2	2	9	-20	-9.9	8
18	Volendam	14	2	2	10	-21	-8.4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+20	+16.2	21
2	Feyenoord	6	5	1	0	+17	+11.9	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	5	1	0	+16	+11.3	16
4	Go Ahead Eagles	6	5	1	0	+15	+4.3	16
5	Twente	7	5	1	1	+4	+2.8	16
6	Heerenveen	7	4	1	2	+6	+6.4	13
7	Ajax	6	4	0	2	+8	+4.1	12
8	For Sittard	6	3	2	1	+3	+3.6	11
9	Heracles	6	3	1	2	-4	-3.6	10
10	Nijmegen	6	2	2	2	+3	+1.5	8
11	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.5	8
12	Excelsior	7	1	4	2	-3	-2.3	7
13	Zwolle	7	2	1	4	-4	+1.2	7
14	Volendam	7	2	1	4	-8	+1.2	7
15	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-6	-4.3	6
16	Utrecht	6	1	2	3	-7	-5.7	5
17	Almere City	7	1	2	4	-12	-3.9	5
18	Vitesse	6	0	2	4	-8	-1.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+23	+13.9	18
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+12	+15.6	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+7	+1.1	13
4	Twente	6	3	2	1	+7	+5.0	11
5	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.0	10
6	Zwolle	7	3	1	3	+1	-4.9	10
7	Excelsior	6	2	2	2	+0	-1.9	8
8	Almere City	7	2	2	3	-6	-4.3	8
9	Utrecht	7	2	1	4	-4	-5.6	7
10	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-5	-0.4	6
11	Heerenveen	7	2	0	5	-9	-5.6	6
12	Vitesse	7	2	0	5	-12	-8.0	6
13	Heracles	7	1	2	4	-8	-4.7	5
14	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-8	-11.2	5
15	Nijmegen	5	0	3	2	-5	-9.5	3
16	Ajax	6	0	3	3	-6	-4.4	3
17	For Sittard	7	0	2	5	-14	-7.0	2
18	Volendam	7	0	1	6	-13	-9.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.