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Championship

Referee: D England

Leeds

S S S U S

3–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,8

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 49%

53%

44%

Points per game

1,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

53%

56%

Both score Ø 52%

53%

50%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,6

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

3,35 xG 1,24

61% Possession 39%

20 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Leeds 4. · Middlesbrough 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	19	15	1	3	+22	+14.3	46
2	Ipswich	18	13	3	2	+15	+9.9	42
3	West Brom	18	9	5	4	+12	+3.2	32
4	Leeds	17	9	5	3	+12	+13.4	32
5	Southampton	17	9	4	4	+1	+5.4	31
6	Hull	18	8	6	4	+6	+3.9	30
7	Blackburn	18	9	1	8	+3	+1.6	28
8	Preston	19	8	4	7	-8	-7.7	28
9	Cardiff	18	8	3	7	+6	-2.2	27
10	Middlesbrough	18	8	3	7	+3	+11.9	27
11	Sunderland	18	8	2	8	+7	+11.1	26
12	Bristol City	18	7	4	7	+0	+1.1	25
13	Watford	18	6	6	6	+4	+3.8	24
14	Norwich	17	7	2	8	-2	-2.6	23
15	Coventry	18	5	7	6	+2	+6.8	22
16	Birmingham	18	6	4	8	-4	-1.8	22
17	Stoke	18	6	3	9	-7	-4.4	21
18	Swansea	18	5	5	8	-1	-6.8	20
19	Millwall	18	5	5	8	-5	-7.3	20
20	Plymouth	18	5	4	9	+1	-8.9	19
21	Huddersfield	18	4	7	7	-13	-9.6	19
22	QPR	19	4	4	11	-13	-8.7	16
23	Rotherham	18	2	6	10	-20	-21.7	12
24	Sheffield Weds	18	1	4	13	-21	-4.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	9	8	0	1	+12	+10.4	24
2	Leeds	9	6	3	0	+11	+10.7	21
3	Leicester	9	7	0	2	+9	+6.9	21
4	West Brom	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.2	20
5	Watford	10	5	3	2	+11	+8.6	18
6	Birmingham	9	5	3	1	+6	+1.6	18
7	Preston	10	5	2	3	-2	-3.4	17
8	Plymouth	9	5	1	3	+9	-4.0	16
9	Hull	9	4	4	1	+6	+5.1	16
10	Cardiff	9	5	1	3	+5	-0.6	16
11	Middlesbrough	9	5	1	3	+4	+7.7	16
12	Sunderland	9	5	0	4	+5	+5.8	15
13	Norwich	8	5	0	3	+2	+1.9	15
14	Coventry	9	3	5	1	+3	+5.1	14
15	Southampton	8	4	2	2	+2	+4.6	14
16	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+2	+2.1	14
17	Stoke	9	4	1	4	-2	-2.2	13
18	Blackburn	9	4	0	5	-3	+1.5	12
19	Rotherham	9	2	5	2	+1	-5.8	11
20	Swansea	9	2	4	3	+0	-1.2	10
21	Huddersfield	9	2	4	3	-6	-3.9	10
22	Millwall	9	2	1	6	-8	-2.7	7
23	Sheffield Weds	9	1	3	5	-8	+0.1	6
24	QPR	8	1	2	5	-8	-2.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	10	8	1	1	+13	+7.4	25
2	Ipswich	9	5	3	1	+3	-0.4	18
3	Southampton	9	5	2	2	-1	+0.9	17
4	Blackburn	9	5	1	3	+6	+0.1	16
5	Hull	9	4	2	3	+0	-1.3	14
6	Millwall	9	3	4	2	+3	-4.6	13
7	West Brom	8	3	3	2	+4	-1.0	12
8	Sunderland	9	3	2	4	+2	+5.3	11
9	Cardiff	9	3	2	4	+1	-1.5	11
10	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.7	11
11	Middlesbrough	9	3	2	4	-1	+4.2	11
12	Bristol City	9	3	2	4	-2	-1.0	11
13	QPR	11	3	2	6	-5	-6.2	11
14	Preston	9	3	2	4	-6	-4.4	11
15	Swansea	9	3	1	5	-1	-5.5	10
16	Huddersfield	9	2	3	4	-7	-5.7	9
17	Coventry	9	2	2	5	-1	+1.7	8
18	Norwich	9	2	2	5	-4	-4.5	8
19	Stoke	9	2	2	5	-5	-2.2	8
20	Watford	8	1	3	4	-7	-4.7	6
21	Birmingham	9	1	1	7	-10	-3.4	4
22	Plymouth	9	0	3	6	-8	-4.9	3
23	Sheffield Weds	9	0	1	8	-13	-4.8	1
24	Rotherham	9	0	1	8	-21	-15.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.