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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Rio Ave

T T T S U

1–1

Full-time

Estrela

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 23%

18%

27%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

36%

Both score Ø 50%

55%

45%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,23 xG 0,21

59% Possession 41%

13 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 0

0 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 17. · Estrela 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+14	+12.3	28
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+12	+10.4	28
3	Porto	11	8	1	2	+7	+7.2	25
4	Sp Braga	11	7	2	2	+12	+6.2	23
5	Moreirense	11	6	2	3	+4	-0.1	20
6	Guimaraes	11	6	1	4	+5	+3.0	19
7	Farense	11	5	1	5	+5	-3.7	16
8	Famalicao	11	4	4	3	+1	-4.6	16
9	Boavista	11	4	3	4	-1	-5.1	15
10	Portimonense	11	4	2	5	-12	-6.2	14
11	Gil Vicente	11	3	2	6	+1	-4.6	11
12	Estrela	11	3	2	6	-5	-1.8	11
13	Estoril	11	3	1	7	-1	-3.8	10
14	Casa Pia	11	2	4	5	-5	-2.4	10
15	Vizela	12	2	4	6	-6	-1.1	10
16	Chaves	12	3	1	8	-16	-5.0	10
17	Rio Ave	11	2	3	6	-7	+1.1	9
18	Arouca	11	1	3	7	-8	-1.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+9	+7.2	18
2	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.9	13
3	Guimaraes	6	4	0	2	+7	+4.9	12
4	Gil Vicente	6	3	2	1	+8	-2.3	11
5	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+8	+7.6	10
6	Farense	6	3	1	2	+5	-0.6	10
7	Famalicao	5	3	1	1	+2	-1.6	10
8	Porto	5	3	1	1	+2	+7.9	10
9	Boavista	6	2	2	2	+0	-1.9	8
10	Estoril	5	2	1	2	+4	+0.5	7
11	Moreirense	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.3	7
12	Chaves	6	2	1	3	-2	+0.4	7
13	Rio Ave	6	2	1	3	-2	+1.7	7
14	Portimonense	5	2	1	2	-3	-1.6	7
15	Estrela	6	2	0	4	-3	-0.0	6
16	Vizela	6	1	2	3	-3	+1.2	5
17	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-4	+0.8	4
18	Casa Pia	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+6	+6.4	15
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+5	-0.7	15
3	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+4	-1.3	13
4	Moreirense	6	4	1	1	+4	-0.4	13
5	Sp Lisbon	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.2	10
6	Casa Pia	6	2	2	2	-2	-0.3	8
7	Boavista	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.2	7
8	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.9	7
9	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	-9	-4.6	7
10	Farense	5	2	0	3	+0	-3.1	6
11	Famalicao	6	1	3	2	-1	-3.1	6
12	Estrela	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.8	5
13	Vizela	6	1	2	3	-3	-2.3	5
14	Estoril	6	1	0	5	-5	-4.4	3
15	Chaves	6	1	0	5	-14	-5.3	3
16	Arouca	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.6	2
17	Rio Ave	5	0	2	3	-5	-0.6	2
18	Gil Vicente	5	0	0	5	-7	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.