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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Brentford

S S S T T

3–1

Full-time

Luton

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 23%

31%

15%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

62%

Both score Ø 62%

54%

69%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,47 xG 0,23

69% Possession 31%

27 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 1

12 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 11. · Luton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	9	3	1	+17	+12.6	30
2	Man City	13	9	2	2	+20	+14.5	29
3	Liverpool	13	8	4	1	+17	+11.5	28
4	Aston Villa	13	9	1	3	+13	+7.5	28
5	Tottenham	13	8	2	3	+8	+0.9	26
6	Man United	13	8	0	5	+0	-1.7	24
7	Newcastle	13	7	2	4	+17	+12.0	23
8	Brighton	13	6	4	3	+5	+3.1	22
9	West Ham	13	6	2	5	+0	-5.1	20
10	Chelsea	13	4	4	5	+2	+8.6	16
11	Brentford	13	4	4	5	+1	+5.9	16
12	Wolves	13	4	3	6	-5	-4.3	15
13	Crystal Palace	13	4	3	6	-5	-2.0	15
14	Fulham	13	4	3	6	-9	-8.5	15
15	Everton	13	4	2	7	-6	+2.4	14
16	Nott'm Forest	13	3	4	6	-5	-5.0	13
17	Bournemouth	13	3	3	7	-14	-8.2	12
18	Luton	13	2	3	8	-11	-12.8	9
19	Sheffield United	13	1	2	10	-23	-19.0	5
20	Burnley	13	1	1	11	-22	-12.4	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	6	6	0	0	+18	+9.0	18
2	Liverpool	6	6	0	0	+15	+10.4	18
3	Newcastle	7	6	0	1	+14	+9.7	18
4	Arsenal	7	5	2	0	+11	+8.5	17
5	Man City	6	5	1	0	+13	+3.7	16
6	Brighton	7	3	3	1	+5	+2.7	12
7	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+2	-0.1	12
8	Man United	7	4	0	3	-2	+0.3	12
9	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+2	-3.2	10
10	Nott'm Forest	6	2	3	1	+2	+0.7	9
11	Brentford	7	2	3	2	+1	+2.5	9
12	Fulham	6	3	0	3	-2	-0.7	9
13	Wolves	6	2	2	2	-3	-2.2	8
14	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-4	-4.1	8
15	Chelsea	7	1	3	3	-1	+4.0	6
16	Crystal Palace	6	1	2	3	-2	-0.5	5
17	Luton	6	1	2	3	-2	-1.7	5
18	Everton	7	1	1	5	-4	+5.1	4
19	Sheffield United	7	1	1	5	-12	-10.7	4
20	Burnley	7	0	0	7	-15	-5.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+6	+1.0	14
2	Man City	7	4	1	2	+7	+10.8	13
3	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+6	+4.1	13
4	Man United	6	4	0	2	+2	-2.0	12
5	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	+4.6	10
6	Liverpool	7	2	4	1	+2	+1.1	10
7	Brighton	6	3	1	2	+0	+0.4	10
8	West Ham	7	3	1	3	-2	-1.9	10
9	Everton	6	3	1	2	-2	-2.7	10
10	Crystal Palace	7	3	1	3	-3	-1.5	10
11	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	-5	-1.5	10
12	Brentford	6	2	1	3	+0	+3.4	7
13	Wolves	7	2	1	4	-2	-2.2	7
14	Fulham	7	1	3	3	-7	-7.8	6
15	Newcastle	6	1	2	3	+3	+2.3	5
16	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.7	4
17	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-7	-6.9	4
18	Luton	7	1	1	5	-9	-11.1	4
19	Bournemouth	6	1	1	4	-10	-4.1	4
20	Sheffield United	6	0	1	5	-11	-8.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.