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La Liga

Referee: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva

Girona

S S S S U

2–1

Full-time

Valencia

U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Girona Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 58%

79%

36%

Points per game

2,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

64%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

64%

43%

Average goals

3,5

2,4

Scored

2,3

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,64 xG 0,98

76% Possession 24%

9 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 2

8 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Girona 2. · Valencia 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	14	11	2	1	+22	+11.5	35
2	Girona	14	11	2	1	+15	+8.4	35
3	Ath Madrid	13	10	1	2	+18	+13.2	31
4	Barcelona	14	9	4	1	+13	+14.2	31
5	Ath Bilbao	14	7	4	3	+8	+8.8	25
6	Sociedad	14	7	4	3	+8	+1.7	25
7	Betis	14	6	6	2	+2	+1.4	24
8	Las Palmas	15	6	3	6	+0	-3.7	21
9	Valencia	14	5	4	5	-2	+1.4	19
10	Vallecano	14	4	7	3	-2	-5.1	19
11	Getafe	15	4	7	4	-3	-4.9	19
12	Villarreal	14	4	3	7	-4	-5.3	15
13	Alaves	14	4	3	7	-5	+1.1	15
14	Osasuna	14	4	2	8	-8	-5.7	14
15	Sevilla	13	2	6	5	+0	-5.3	12
16	Cadiz	14	2	5	7	-10	-8.4	11
17	Mallorca	14	1	7	6	-7	-4.2	10
18	Celta	14	1	5	8	-10	-3.1	8
19	Granada	14	1	4	9	-14	-10.6	7
20	Almeria	14	0	3	11	-21	-5.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	7	7	0	0	+10	+9.3	21
2	Barcelona	7	6	0	1	+10	+6.6	18
3	Betis	7	5	2	0	+8	+5.9	17
4	Sociedad	8	5	2	1	+7	+0.3	17
5	Real Madrid	6	5	1	0	+12	+9.0	16
6	Girona	7	5	1	1	+7	+2.5	16
7	Getafe	7	4	3	0	+4	+1.0	15
8	Ath Bilbao	7	4	2	1	+7	+8.0	14
9	Las Palmas	7	4	2	1	+4	-0.2	14
10	Valencia	7	4	1	2	+5	+4.5	13
11	Alaves	7	4	1	2	+1	+3.5	13
12	Sevilla	7	2	3	2	+3	-1.1	9
13	Cadiz	7	2	3	2	-1	+2.4	9
14	Villarreal	8	2	1	5	-2	-1.0	7
15	Vallecano	7	1	4	2	-6	-4.7	7
16	Granada	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.7	6
17	Mallorca	6	0	5	1	-1	-1.5	5
18	Osasuna	7	1	2	4	-5	-0.2	5
19	Celta	7	0	3	4	-7	+0.6	3
20	Almeria	7	0	2	5	-8	-0.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	6	1	1	+10	+2.5	19
2	Girona	7	6	1	0	+8	+5.9	19
3	Barcelona	7	3	4	0	+3	+7.6	13
4	Vallecano	7	3	3	1	+4	-0.4	12
5	Ath Bilbao	7	3	2	2	+1	+0.7	11
6	Ath Madrid	6	3	1	2	+8	+3.9	10
7	Osasuna	7	3	0	4	-3	-5.5	9
8	Sociedad	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.3	8
9	Villarreal	6	2	2	2	-2	-4.3	8
10	Las Palmas	8	2	1	5	-4	-3.4	7
11	Betis	7	1	4	2	-6	-4.4	7
12	Valencia	7	1	3	3	-7	-3.1	6
13	Celta	7	1	2	4	-3	-3.7	5
14	Mallorca	8	1	2	5	-6	-2.8	5
15	Getafe	8	0	4	4	-7	-5.9	4
16	Sevilla	6	0	3	3	-3	-4.2	3
17	Alaves	7	0	2	5	-6	-2.4	2
18	Cadiz	7	0	2	5	-9	-10.8	2
19	Granada	7	0	1	6	-10	-5.9	1
20	Almeria	7	0	1	6	-13	-5.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.