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Championship
Referee: J Linington
Millwall
U T S T T
1–1
Full-time
Sunderland
S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Sunderland
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,3
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 36%
28%
44%
Points per game
1,1
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
56%
67%
Both score Ø 45%
39%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,7
Scored
1,1
1,6
Conceded
1,4
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,68 xG 1,56
40% Possession 60%
7 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 4
3 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 12
5 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Millwall 19. · Sunderland 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leicester 19 15 1 3 +22 +14.3 46
2 Ipswich 18 13 3 2 +15 +9.9 42
3 West Brom 18 9 5 4 +12 +3.2 32
4 Leeds 17 9 5 3 +12 +13.4 32
5 Southampton 17 9 4 4 +1 +5.4 31
6 Hull 18 8 6 4 +6 +3.9 30
7 Blackburn 18 9 1 8 +3 +1.6 28
8 Preston 19 8 4 7 -8 -7.7 28
9 Cardiff 18 8 3 7 +6 -2.2 27
10 Middlesbrough 18 8 3 7 +3 +11.9 27
11 Sunderland 18 8 2 8 +7 +11.1 26
12 Bristol City 18 7 4 7 +0 +1.1 25
13 Watford 18 6 6 6 +4 +3.8 24
14 Norwich 17 7 2 8 -2 -2.6 23
15 Coventry 18 5 7 6 +2 +6.8 22
16 Birmingham 18 6 4 8 -4 -1.8 22
17 Stoke 18 6 3 9 -7 -4.4 21
18 Swansea 18 5 5 8 -1 -6.8 20
19 Millwall 18 5 5 8 -5 -7.3 20
20 Plymouth 18 5 4 9 +1 -8.9 19
21 Huddersfield 18 4 7 7 -13 -9.6 19
22 QPR 19 4 4 11 -13 -8.7 16
23 Rotherham 18 2 6 10 -20 -21.7 12
24 Sheffield Weds 18 1 4 13 -21 -4.7 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Millwall Sunderland
25′
🟨 Mason Burstow
32′
🟨 Jack Clarke
1–0 K. Nisbet
B. Norton-Cuffy
44′
45′
🟨 Daniel Ballard
Half-time 1–0
56′
🔁 B. Dack
↦ M. Burstow
56′
🔁 A. Pritchard
↦ A. Aouchiche
56′
🔁 P. Roberts
↦ A. Ba
R. Longman 🔁
↦ G. Honeyman
63′
T. Bradshaw 🔁
↦ K. Nisbet
63′
George Saville 🟨
67′
D. Watmore 🔁
↦ Z. Flemming
73′
73′
🔁 Eliezer Mayenda
↦ D. Neil
Bartosz Białkowski 🟨
75′
Jake Cooper 🟨
78′
78′
J. Clarke 1–1
Tom Bradshaw 🟨
81′
Duncan Watmore 🟨
94′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Millwall

4-4-2
33 B. Bialkowski G
18 R. Leonard D
45 W. Harding D
5 J. Cooper D
3 M. Wallace D
17 B. Norton-Cuffy M
8 B. Mitchell M
23 G. Saville M
39 G. Honeyman M
10 Z. Flemming F
7 K. Nisbet F
Bench (9)
11 R. Longman
9 T. Bradshaw
19 D. Watmore
14 A. Campbell
22 A. Emakhu
2 D. McNamara
20 M. Šarkić
25 R. Esse
4 S. Hutchinson

Coach: A. Barrett

Sunderland

4-1-4-1
1 A. Patterson G
32 T. Hume D
13 L. O'Nien D
5 D. Ballard D
2 N. Huggins D
39 P. Ekwah M
17 A. Ba M
24 D. Neil M
22 A. Aouchiche M
20 J. Clarke M
11 M. Burstow F
Bench (9)
46 B. Dack
21 A. Pritchard
10 P. Roberts
12 Eliezer Mayenda
30 N. Bishop
9 Luís Semedo
18 E. Taylor
25 N. Triantis
7 J. Bellingham

Coach: T. Mowbray

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,00
U ✓
3,39
B
2,35
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,94
U2,5 ✓
1,86
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Linington · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.