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Coupe de France
Referee: L L'Henoret

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dijon 1 1 0 0 +6 3
2 Vitré 1 1 0 0 +6 3
3 Olympique d'Alès 1 1 0 0 +5 3
4 Laval 1 1 0 0 +5 3
5 Thionville Lusitanos 1 1 0 0 +4 3
6 Orleans 1 1 0 0 +4 3
7 Quevilly Rouen 1 1 0 0 +4 3
8 Bergerac 1 1 0 0 +4 3
9 Romorantin 1 1 0 0 +4 3
10 Villers Houlgate CF 1 1 0 0 +4 3
11 Chambly Thelle FC 1 1 0 0 +3 3
12 Lyon Duchere 1 1 0 0 +3 3
13 Métropole Troyenne 1 1 0 0 +3 3
14 Ajaccio 1 1 0 0 +3 3
15 Castanet 1 1 0 0 +3 3
16 Amiens 1 1 0 0 +3 3
17 Caen 1 1 0 0 +3 3
18 St Etienne 1 1 0 0 +3 3
19 Rodez 1 1 0 0 +3 3
20 Revel 1 1 0 0 +3 3
21 Sarreguemines 1 1 0 0 +2 3
22 Martigues 1 1 0 0 +2 3
23 Ergué-Gaberic 1 1 0 0 +2 3
24 Dinan Léhon 1 1 0 0 +2 3
25 Nimes 1 1 0 0 +2 3
26 Valenciennes 1 1 0 0 +2 3
27 Biesheim 1 1 0 0 +2 3
28 Hauts Lyonnais 1 1 0 0 +2 3
29 Angers 1 1 0 0 +2 3
30 Pontivy GSI 1 1 0 0 +2 3
31 Furiani-Agliani 1 1 0 0 +2 3
32 St-Philbert Gd Lieu 1 1 0 0 +2 3
33 Le Puy Foot 1 1 0 0 +2 3
34 Entente S St Gratien 1 1 0 0 +2 3
35 Entente Itancourt-Neu. 1 1 0 0 +1 3
36 Dieppe 1 1 0 0 +1 3
37 Thaon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
38 Chateauroux 1 1 0 0 +1 3
39 Sochaux 1 1 0 0 +1 3
40 Louhans-Cuiseaux 1 1 0 0 +1 3
41 Feurs 1 1 0 0 +1 3
42 Saint-Priest 1 1 0 0 +1 3
43 Rouen 1 1 0 0 +1 3
44 Les Herbiers 1 1 0 0 +1 3
45 Epinal 1 1 0 0 +1 3
46 Grenoble 1 1 0 0 +1 3
47 Coulaines 1 1 0 0 +1 3
48 Plessis Robinson 92 1 1 0 0 +1 3
49 Annecy 1 1 0 0 +1 3
50 AG Caennaise 1 1 0 0 +1 3
51 Cannes 1 1 0 0 +1 3
52 RC Calais 1 1 0 0 +1 3
53 Mulhouse 1 1 0 0 +1 3
54 Libourne 1 1 0 0 +1 3
55 Bassin d'Arcachon Sud 1 1 0 0 +1 3
56 Paimpol 1 1 0 0 +1 3
57 Racing Colombes 92 1 1 0 0 +1 3
58 JS Douvres 1 1 0 0 +1 3
59 Chambéry 1 1 0 0 +1 3
60 Sarre Union 1 1 0 0 +1 3
61 Pau FC 1 1 0 0 +1 3
62 Dunkerque 1 1 0 0 +1 3
63 Angoulême 1 1 0 0 +1 3
64 Union Cosnoise 1 1 0 0 +1 3
65 Feignies-Aulnoye 1 1 0 0 +1 3
66 Saint-Meziery 1 1 0 0 +1 3
67 Blagnac 1 1 0 0 +1 3
68 Pontarlier 1 1 0 0 +1 3
69 Fleury 91 1 1 0 0 +1 3
70 Villenave 1 1 0 0 +1 3
71 Panazol 1 1 0 0 +1 3
72 Stade Mayennais 1 1 0 0 +1 3
73 Stade Briochin 1 0 1 0 +0 1
74 Concarneau 1 0 1 0 +0 1
75 Saint-Malo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
76 Guingamp 1 0 1 0 +0 1
77 Villejuif 1 0 1 0 +0 1
78 Paris FC 1 0 1 0 +0 1
79 Thonon Évian 1 0 1 0 +0 1
80 Aubagne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
81 Fabrègues 1 0 1 0 +0 1
82 Squadra Valincu ARR 1 0 1 0 +0 1
83 Nœux-les-Mines 1 0 1 0 +0 1
84 Avoine OCC 1 0 1 0 +0 1
85 Stade Plabennec 1 0 1 0 +0 1
86 Challans 1 0 1 0 +0 1
87 Reims Sainte-Anne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
88 Boulogne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
89 Canet Roussillon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
90 Bordeaux 1 0 1 0 +0 1
91 Saint-Omer 1 0 1 0 +0 1
92 Saint-Denis 1 0 1 0 +0 1
93 Limonest 1 0 1 0 +0 1
94 Domerat 1 0 1 0 +0 1
95 Le Pays du Valois 1 0 1 0 +0 1
96 Auxerre 1 0 1 0 +0 1
97 Chaponnay-Marennes 1 0 1 0 +0 1
98 Hyères 1 0 1 0 +0 1
99 Forbach 1 0 1 0 +0 1
100 Geispolsheim 1 0 1 0 +0 1
101 Blériot-Plage 1 0 1 0 +0 1
102 ASPTT Dijon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
103 Croix Football IC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
104 Dives-Cabourg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
105 Schweighouse s/Moder 1 0 0 1 -1 0
106 Red Star 1 0 0 1 -1 0
107 Jura Sud Foot 1 0 0 1 -1 0
108 Mâcon 1 0 0 1 -1 0
109 Espaly-Saint-Marcel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
110 Roche Saint-Genest 1 0 0 1 -1 0
111 Stade Pontivy 1 0 0 1 -1 0
112 Avranches 1 0 0 1 -1 0
113 Troyes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
114 Villefranche 1 0 0 1 -1 0
115 Cholet 1 0 0 1 -1 0
116 Brissac 1 0 0 1 -1 0
117 Fos 1 0 0 1 -1 0
118 Drapeau Fougères 1 0 0 1 -1 0
119 Bourgoin-Jallieu 1 0 0 1 -1 0
120 Longueau 1 0 0 1 -1 0
121 Jura Dolois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
122 France Aizenay 1 0 0 1 -1 0
123 Saumur 1 0 0 1 -1 0
124 Flers 1 0 0 1 -1 0
125 US Laon 1 0 0 1 -1 0
126 Choisy au Bac 1 0 0 1 -1 0
127 Volvic 1 0 0 1 -1 0
128 APM Metz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
129 Chauray 1 0 0 1 -1 0
130 Chaumont 1 0 0 1 -1 0
131 Vierzon FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
132 Chantilly 1 0 0 1 -1 0
133 Bondues 1 0 0 1 -1 0
134 Pirae 1 0 0 1 -1 0
135 Bayonne 1 0 0 1 -1 0
136 Colmar 1 0 0 1 -1 0
137 Torcy 1 0 0 1 -1 0
138 Isle 1 0 0 1 -1 0
139 Morlaas Est-Bearn 1 0 0 1 -1 0
140 Aunis Avenir 1 0 0 1 -1 0
141 Jarville 1 0 0 1 -2 0
142 Velay 1 0 0 1 -2 0
143 Saint-Renan 1 0 0 1 -2 0
144 TA Rennes 1 0 0 1 -2 0
145 Roannais Foot 1 0 0 1 -2 0
146 Haguenau 1 0 0 1 -2 0
147 Villerupt Thil 1 0 0 1 -2 0
148 Neuville 1 0 0 1 -2 0
149 Houilles 1 0 0 1 -2 0
150 Plougastel 1 0 0 1 -2 0
151 Noisy-le-Sec 1 0 0 1 -2 0
152 Le Poiré sur Vie 1 0 0 1 -2 0
153 Seyssins 1 0 0 1 -2 0
154 Saint-Michel 91 1 0 0 1 -2 0
155 Camon 1 0 0 1 -3 0
156 Bastia 1 0 0 1 -3 0
157 Le Quesnoy 1 0 0 1 -3 0
158 Toulouse Métropole 1 0 0 1 -3 0
159 Poitiers 1 0 0 1 -3 0
160 Hombourg-Haut 1 0 0 1 -3 0
161 Loon-Plage 1 0 0 1 -3 0
162 Bourg-en-bresse 01 1 0 0 1 -3 0
163 Liffré 1 0 0 1 -3 0
164 St-Aubin Guérande 1 0 0 1 -3 0
165 Hienghène Sport 1 0 0 1 -4 0
166 Lavernose Lherm 1 0 0 1 -4 0
167 Montdidier 1 0 0 1 -4 0
168 Montlouis 1 0 0 1 -4 0
169 Auch 1 0 0 1 -4 0
170 FC Equeurdreville 1 0 0 1 -4 0
171 Rosador 1 0 0 1 -5 0
172 Provin 1 0 0 1 -5 0
173 Doullens 1 0 0 1 -6 0
174 Châteaugiron 1 0 0 1 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Étoile Maritime Trélissac
1–0 H. Bouhriba
22′
42′
N. Nana Gassa Gonga 1–1
Half-time 1–1
I. Tahri 🔁
↦ Y. Soukouna
46′
W. Rataud 🔁
↦ J. Diallo
75′
Y. Djelida 🔁
↦ H. Kapusuz
75′
75′
🔁 J. Pothier
↦ N. Nana Gassa Gonga
75′
🔁 J. Romil
↦ A. Diakité
75′
🔁 M. Gadji
↦ J. Grain
88′
J. Romil 1–2
M. Kouyaté 🔁
↦ H. Bouhriba
90′
2–2 M. Latrach
90′
Full-time 2–2

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.