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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Liverpool

S S T T T

1–2

Full-time

Man United

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 57%

71%

43%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

71%

57%

Both score Ø 64%

71%

57%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,75 xG 1,34

64% Possession 36%

19 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 3. · Man United 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	8	6	1	1	+12	+9.3	19
2	Man City	8	5	1	2	+11	+6.3	16
3	Liverpool	7	5	0	2	+4	+3.1	15
4	Bournemouth	8	4	3	1	+3	-0.3	15
5	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+7	+0.6	14
6	Tottenham	8	4	2	2	+7	-0.9	14
7	Sunderland	8	4	2	2	+3	-2.2	14
8	Crystal Palace	8	3	4	1	+4	+6.5	13
9	Brighton	8	3	3	2	+1	+1.6	12
10	Aston Villa	8	3	3	2	+0	-4.0	12
11	Everton	8	3	2	3	+0	-1.5	11
12	Man United	7	3	1	3	-2	+4.0	10
13	Newcastle	8	2	3	3	+0	+4.3	9
14	Fulham	8	2	2	4	-4	-3.3	8
15	Leeds	8	2	2	4	-6	+1.8	8
16	Brentford	7	2	1	4	-3	-1.1	7
17	Burnley	8	2	1	5	-6	-10.9	7
18	Nott'm Forest	8	1	2	5	-10	-5.4	5
19	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-10	-4.7	4
20	Wolves	8	0	2	6	-11	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+10	+6.7	10
2	Sunderland	4	3	1	0	+6	+0.6	10
3	Bournemouth	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.2	10
4	Man City	4	3	0	1	+7	+4.7	9
5	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.7	9
6	Man United	4	3	0	1	+3	+5.2	9
7	Everton	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.7	8
8	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+2	+0.7	8
9	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+3	-4.7	7
10	Brentford	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.0	7
11	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.8	7
12	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.8	7
13	Aston Villa	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.8	7
14	Crystal Palace	4	1	3	0	+1	+4.8	6
15	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	+1	+3.1	6
16	Leeds	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.7	5
17	Tottenham	4	1	1	2	+1	+0.1	4
18	Nott'm Forest	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.7	3
19	Wolves	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.8	1
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+6	-1.0	10
2	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+2	+2.6	9
3	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+6	-0.3	7
4	Man City	4	2	1	1	+4	+1.6	7
5	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
6	Liverpool	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.4	6
7	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.2	5
8	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.5	5
9	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.8	4
10	West Ham	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.3	4
11	Sunderland	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.8	4
12	Newcastle	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.2	3
13	Everton	4	1	0	3	-3	-2.3	3
14	Leeds	4	1	0	3	-6	-1.9	3
15	Nott'm Forest	4	0	2	2	-5	-4.7	2
16	Wolves	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.4	1
17	Man United	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
18	Fulham	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1
19	Brentford	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.1	0
20	Burnley	4	0	0	4	-9	-6.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.