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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Liverpool

S S S S T

0–0

Full-time

Man United

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 63%

69%

56%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

69%

56%

Both score Ø 54%

69%

38%

Average goals

3,2

2,4

Scored

2,3

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,38 xG 0,75

68% Possession 32%

34 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 1

13 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

12 Corners 0

4 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Liverpool 3. · Man United 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	12	3	2	+20	+19.0	39
2	Aston Villa	17	12	2	3	+16	+7.9	38
3	Liverpool	16	11	4	1	+21	+12.7	37
4	Man City	17	10	4	3	+20	+15.9	34
5	Tottenham	17	10	3	4	+12	+0.7	33
6	Newcastle	17	9	2	6	+15	+13.3	29
7	West Ham	17	8	3	6	-1	-5.0	27
8	Man United	16	9	0	7	-3	-1.4	27
9	Brighton	17	7	5	5	+3	+2.7	26
10	Everton	17	8	2	7	+2	+5.1	26
11	Chelsea	17	6	4	7	+2	+9.4	22
12	Fulham	17	6	3	8	-3	-9.4	21
13	Brentford	17	5	4	8	+0	+8.0	19
14	Wolves	17	5	4	8	-8	-7.1	19
15	Bournemouth	16	5	4	7	-9	-5.7	19
16	Crystal Palace	17	4	5	8	-8	-2.3	17
17	Nott'm Forest	17	3	5	9	-13	-7.3	14
18	Luton	16	2	3	11	-15	-19.0	9
19	Burnley	17	2	2	13	-20	-13.9	8
20	Sheffield United	17	2	2	13	-31	-23.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	8	8	0	0	+20	+9.9	24
2	Newcastle	9	8	0	1	+18	+15.0	24
3	Arsenal	9	7	2	0	+14	+12.3	23
4	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+16	+11.4	21
5	Man City	8	5	3	0	+13	+5.6	18
6	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+6	+5.0	16
7	Fulham	8	5	0	3	+8	+2.6	15
8	Tottenham	8	5	0	3	+4	+1.6	15
9	Man United	9	5	0	4	-4	+2.7	15
10	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+5	-2.5	14
11	Brentford	9	3	3	3	+2	+4.8	12
12	Chelsea	9	3	3	3	+2	+7.7	12
13	Wolves	8	3	3	2	-2	-2.3	12
14	Everton	9	3	1	5	+1	+7.1	10
15	Nott'm Forest	8	2	3	3	-1	+0.5	9
16	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.8	9
17	Sheffield United	9	2	1	6	-13	-11.3	7
18	Luton	8	1	2	5	-4	-4.8	5
19	Crystal Palace	8	1	2	5	-5	-0.8	5
20	Burnley	9	1	0	8	-12	-4.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	9	5	3	1	+8	-0.9	18
2	Man City	9	5	1	3	+7	+10.4	16
3	Arsenal	8	5	1	2	+6	+6.7	16
4	Liverpool	9	4	4	1	+5	+1.3	16
5	Everton	8	5	1	2	+1	-2.0	16
6	Aston Villa	9	4	2	3	-4	-2.0	14
7	West Ham	9	4	1	4	-6	-2.5	13
8	Man United	7	4	0	3	+1	-4.0	12
9	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-3	-1.5	12
10	Chelsea	8	3	1	4	+0	+1.7	10
11	Brighton	8	3	1	4	-3	-2.2	10
12	Bournemouth	8	3	1	4	-5	-2.9	10
13	Brentford	8	2	1	5	-2	+3.2	7
14	Wolves	9	2	1	6	-6	-4.8	7
15	Fulham	9	1	3	5	-11	-12.0	6
16	Newcastle	8	1	2	5	-3	-1.6	5
17	Burnley	8	1	2	5	-8	-9.1	5
18	Nott'm Forest	9	1	2	6	-12	-7.9	5
19	Luton	8	1	1	6	-11	-14.3	4
20	Sheffield United	8	0	1	7	-18	-12.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.