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League Cup

Referee: Thomas Bramall

Liverpool

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Southampton

T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%

10 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

4 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cardiff	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.3	9
2	Wrexham	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.8	7
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.6	7
4	Grimsby	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
5	Wycombe	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.4	7
6	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.5	7
7	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+12	–	6
8	Doncaster	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.1	6
9	Bradford	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.7	6
10	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.8	6
11	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
12	Cambridge United	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.1	6
13	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
14	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.8	6
15	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
16	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
17	Reading	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.3	6
18	Wigan	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
19	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	–	4
20	Plymouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
21	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-5	-0.5	4
22	Stockport County	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
23	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
24	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
25	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
26	Preston	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
27	Everton	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
28	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
29	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
30	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
31	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
32	Cheltenham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
33	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.9	3
34	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
35	Huddersfield	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
36	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
37	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
38	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
39	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
40	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
41	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
42	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
43	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
44	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
45	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
46	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
47	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
50	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
52	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
53	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
54	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
55	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
56	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
57	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
58	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
59	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
60	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
63	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
64	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
65	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
66	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
67	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
68	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
69	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
70	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
71	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
72	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
73	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
74	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
75	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
76	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
77	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
78	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
79	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
80	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
81	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
82	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
83	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
84	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
85	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
86	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
87	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.6	7
2	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
3	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
4	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
5	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
6	Wigan	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
7	Wrexham	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.8	4
8	Grimsby	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.5	4
9	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-5	-0.5	4
10	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
11	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
12	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
14	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
15	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
16	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
17	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
18	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
20	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
21	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
22	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
23	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
24	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
25	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
26	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
27	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
29	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
33	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
34	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
35	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
36	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
38	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
39	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
40	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
42	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
44	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
45	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
46	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
47	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
48	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
49	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
50	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
51	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
52	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wycombe	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.4	7
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+12	–	6
3	Doncaster	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.1	6
4	Bradford	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.7	6
5	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.8	6
6	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
7	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
8	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
9	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Wrexham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
11	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
12	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
13	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
14	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
17	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
18	Reading	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	3
19	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
20	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
21	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
22	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
23	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
24	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
25	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
30	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
32	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
33	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
34	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
35	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
38	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
39	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
41	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
42	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
43	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
44	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
45	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
46	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
47	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
48	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
49	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
50	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
51	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
52	Everton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
53	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
54	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
55	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
56	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.