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Eredivisie

Referee: P van Boekel

Ajax

T S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Sparta Rotterdam

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Sparta Rotterdam

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

2,3

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 28/26 matches

Win Ø 47%

79%

15%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

68%

38%

Both score Ø 38%

29%

46%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

3,0

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,5

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

70% Possession 30%

18 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 6

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 5

7 Offside 0

4 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · Sparta Rotterdam 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	28	22	3	3	+69	69
2	PSV Eindhoven	28	21	2	5	+37	65
3	Feyenoord	28	18	4	6	+36	58
4	Twente	28	16	7	5	+11	55
5	AZ Alkmaar	25	15	3	7	+18	48
6	Utrecht	27	11	8	8	+9	41
7	Groningen	28	9	9	10	-4	36
8	Go Ahead Eagles	29	10	6	13	-8	36
9	Vitesse	23	11	3	9	-8	36
10	Nijmegen	28	9	8	11	-9	35
11	Cambuur	28	10	3	15	-16	33
12	Heerenveen	27	8	7	12	-10	31
13	Heracles	28	8	6	14	-8	30
14	Waalwijk	28	6	10	12	-13	28
15	Willem II	29	6	5	18	-29	23
16	For Sittard	28	6	5	17	-34	23
17	Sparta Rotterdam	26	4	10	12	-18	22
18	Zwolle	28	5	5	18	-23	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	14	11	1	2	+45	34
2	PSV Eindhoven	14	11	0	3	+22	33
3	Feyenoord	14	10	2	2	+22	32
4	AZ Alkmaar	13	9	2	2	+15	29
5	Twente	14	8	5	1	+11	29
6	Utrecht	14	7	4	3	+11	25
7	Heracles	14	7	4	3	+6	25
8	Go Ahead Eagles	15	7	1	7	+3	22
9	Groningen	14	4	6	4	+0	18
10	Cambuur	14	5	1	8	-5	16
11	Sparta Rotterdam	15	3	6	6	-7	15
12	Willem II	14	4	3	7	-8	15
13	Waalwijk	14	4	3	7	-10	15
14	Heerenveen	13	4	2	7	-5	14
15	For Sittard	13	4	2	7	-12	14
16	Vitesse	11	4	1	6	-9	13
17	Nijmegen	13	2	5	6	-6	11
18	Zwolle	14	2	4	8	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	14	11	2	1	+24	35
2	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	2	2	+15	32
3	Feyenoord	14	8	2	4	+14	26
4	Twente	14	8	2	4	+0	26
5	Nijmegen	15	7	3	5	-3	24
6	Vitesse	12	7	2	3	+1	23
7	AZ Alkmaar	12	6	1	5	+3	19
8	Groningen	14	5	3	6	-4	18
9	Heerenveen	14	4	5	5	-5	17
10	Cambuur	14	5	2	7	-11	17
11	Utrecht	13	4	4	5	-2	16
12	Go Ahead Eagles	14	3	5	6	-11	14
13	Waalwijk	14	2	7	5	-3	13
14	Zwolle	14	3	1	10	-16	10
15	For Sittard	15	2	3	10	-22	9
16	Willem II	15	2	2	11	-21	8
17	Sparta Rotterdam	11	1	4	6	-11	7
18	Heracles	14	1	2	11	-14	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.