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Eredivisie

Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie

AZ Alkmaar

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Ajax

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

100%

83%

Points per game

3,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,8

4,7

Scored

2,8

3,5

Conceded

0,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,8

+2,3

This season — Eredivisie · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 78%

75%

81%

Points per game

2,4

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

63%

75%

Both score Ø 41%

25%

56%

Average goals

2,9

4,1

Scored

2,4

3,3

Conceded

0,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+2,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 2. · Ajax 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	16	13	2	1	+38	41
2	AZ Alkmaar	16	12	2	2	+30	38
3	Willem II	17	10	2	5	+5	32
4	PSV Eindhoven	17	9	4	4	+16	31
5	Feyenoord	17	7	7	3	+4	28
6	Heerenveen	17	7	6	4	+7	27
7	Vitesse	17	8	3	6	+5	27
8	Utrecht	16	8	2	6	+7	26
9	Heracles	16	7	4	5	+7	25
10	Groningen	17	6	4	7	+1	22
11	Sparta Rotterdam	17	5	5	7	-6	20
12	Twente	17	5	4	8	-8	19
13	FC Emmen	17	5	3	9	-12	18
14	For Sittard	17	5	3	9	-19	18
15	Zwolle	17	5	1	11	-14	16
16	VVV Venlo	17	5	0	12	-24	15
17	Den Haag	17	3	4	10	-13	13
18	Waalwijk	17	2	2	13	-24	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	8	7	0	1	+24	21
2	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	+15	19
3	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	+14	19
4	Feyenoord	9	5	3	1	+6	18
5	For Sittard	9	5	2	2	+6	17
6	FC Emmen	9	5	2	2	+6	17
7	Heracles	8	5	1	2	+12	16
8	Willem II	8	5	1	2	+5	16
9	Utrecht	8	5	0	3	+10	15
10	Sparta Rotterdam	8	4	2	2	+6	14
11	Vitesse	8	4	2	2	+4	14
12	Heerenveen	9	3	5	1	+2	14
13	Groningen	8	4	1	3	+5	13
14	VVV Venlo	9	4	0	5	-8	12
15	Twente	9	3	2	4	-2	11
16	Zwolle	8	3	1	4	-3	10
17	Den Haag	9	1	4	4	-5	7
18	Waalwijk	8	1	1	6	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	8	6	2	0	+14	20
2	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	+15	19
3	Willem II	9	5	1	3	+0	16
4	Heerenveen	8	4	1	3	+5	13
5	Vitesse	9	4	1	4	+1	13
6	PSV Eindhoven	9	3	3	3	+2	12
7	Utrecht	8	3	2	3	-3	11
8	Feyenoord	8	2	4	2	-2	10
9	Groningen	9	2	3	4	-4	9
10	Heracles	8	2	3	3	-5	9
11	Twente	8	2	2	4	-6	8
12	Den Haag	8	2	0	6	-8	6
13	Zwolle	9	2	0	7	-11	6
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	1	3	5	-12	6
15	Waalwijk	9	1	1	7	-15	4
16	VVV Venlo	8	1	0	7	-16	3
17	FC Emmen	8	0	1	7	-18	1
18	For Sittard	8	0	1	7	-25	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.