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Ligue 1

Referee: F Batta

Metz

T T T T U

0–1

Full-time

Toulouse

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 18%

24%

12%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

47%

Both score Ø 53%

47%

59%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,71 xG 0,96

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 4

2 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 2

20 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 15. · Toulouse 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	12	4	1	+28	+18.2	40
2	Nice	18	10	5	3	+8	+7.8	35
3	Monaco	18	10	3	5	+9	+5.8	33
4	Brest	17	9	4	4	+10	+3.7	31
5	Lille	18	8	7	3	+10	+8.7	31
6	Reims	18	9	2	7	+1	+3.5	29
7	Marseille	18	7	7	4	+7	+13.6	28
8	Lens	17	7	5	5	+4	+1.4	26
9	Strasbourg	18	6	6	6	-4	-2.8	24
10	Rennes	18	5	7	6	+3	+7.4	22
11	Montpellier	17	4	7	6	-2	+3.1	19
12	Le Havre	17	4	7	6	-3	-7.2	19
13	Nantes	17	5	3	9	-9	-8.6	18
14	Lyon	17	4	4	9	-11	-6.0	16
15	Metz	17	4	4	9	-11	-12.3	16
16	Toulouse	17	2	8	7	-8	-10.7	14
17	Lorient	18	2	6	10	-17	-13.0	12
18	Clermont	17	2	5	10	-15	-12.6	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	7	1	1	+17	+10.2	22
2	Marseille	9	6	3	0	+12	+10.4	21
3	Nice	9	6	3	0	+9	+6.2	21
4	Lille	9	6	2	1	+10	+9.6	20
5	Monaco	9	6	0	3	+8	+4.3	18
6	Lens	8	5	2	1	+8	+6.0	17
7	Brest	8	4	3	1	+8	+6.7	15
8	Rennes	10	4	3	3	+6	+7.7	15
9	Strasbourg	9	4	3	2	+3	+2.1	15
10	Reims	8	5	0	3	+1	+4.5	15
11	Nantes	9	3	3	3	+1	-1.6	12
12	Le Havre	8	3	2	3	+1	+3.2	11
13	Montpellier	9	1	6	2	-1	+4.3	9
14	Lorient	9	2	3	4	-3	-4.6	9
15	Lyon	9	2	3	4	-5	+0.1	9
16	Toulouse	8	1	5	2	+1	-0.5	8
17	Metz	8	1	3	4	-2	-1.6	6
18	Clermont	9	1	2	6	-9	-5.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	5	3	0	+11	+8.0	18
2	Brest	9	5	1	3	+2	-3.0	16
3	Monaco	9	4	3	2	+1	+1.5	15
4	Reims	10	4	2	4	+0	-1.0	14
5	Nice	9	4	2	3	-1	+1.6	14
6	Lille	9	2	5	2	+0	-0.9	11
7	Montpellier	8	3	1	4	-1	-1.2	10
8	Metz	9	3	1	5	-9	-10.8	10
9	Lens	9	2	3	4	-4	-4.6	9
10	Strasbourg	9	2	3	4	-7	-4.9	9
11	Le Havre	9	1	5	3	-4	-10.3	8
12	Rennes	8	1	4	3	-3	-0.3	7
13	Marseille	9	1	4	4	-5	+3.2	7
14	Lyon	8	2	1	5	-6	-6.0	7
15	Clermont	8	1	3	4	-6	-7.1	6
16	Toulouse	9	1	3	5	-9	-10.2	6
17	Nantes	8	2	0	6	-10	-7.0	6
18	Lorient	9	0	3	6	-14	-8.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.