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Ligue 1

Referee: Mikael Lesage

Metz

S T T T U

1–1

Full-time

Toulouse

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 23%

19%

26%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

52%

37%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

12 Shots 18

1 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 9

2 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 20. · Toulouse 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	28	24	2	2	+67	74
2	Monaco	28	18	6	4	+39	60
3	Marseille	27	16	7	4	+24	55
4	Lyon	27	14	8	5	+24	50
5	Montpellier	27	9	12	6	+3	39
6	Nantes	27	11	6	10	-1	39
7	Nice	28	11	6	11	-5	39
8	Rennes	27	11	5	11	-1	38
9	Bordeaux	28	10	6	12	-4	36
10	Guingamp	27	9	8	10	-7	35
11	Dijon	27	10	5	12	-14	35
12	St Etienne	27	9	7	11	-13	34
13	Caen	27	9	5	13	-12	32
14	Strasbourg	27	8	7	12	-15	31
15	Amiens	27	8	5	14	-7	29
16	Angers	27	6	10	11	-11	28
17	Toulouse	27	7	7	13	-11	28
18	Troyes	28	8	4	16	-14	28
19	Lille	28	7	6	15	-18	27
20	Metz	27	5	4	18	-24	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	14	0	0	+45	42
2	Monaco	15	12	2	1	+27	38
3	Marseille	13	9	3	1	+20	30
4	Dijon	14	9	2	3	+9	29
5	Nice	15	8	2	5	+3	26
6	Lyon	13	6	5	2	+8	23
7	Strasbourg	14	6	4	4	+2	22
8	Montpellier	14	5	6	3	+4	21
9	Bordeaux	13	6	3	4	+2	21
10	Guingamp	14	5	6	3	+2	21
11	Caen	14	6	3	5	-1	21
12	Troyes	15	6	3	6	-1	21
13	Nantes	13	6	2	5	+1	20
14	St Etienne	13	5	5	3	-1	20
15	Toulouse	13	5	4	4	+2	19
16	Rennes	13	6	1	6	-2	19
17	Amiens	13	5	3	5	+2	18
18	Lille	14	4	4	6	-5	16
19	Angers	13	3	4	6	-9	13
20	Metz	13	3	1	9	-11	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	2	2	+22	32
2	Lyon	14	8	3	3	+16	27
3	Marseille	14	7	4	3	+4	25
4	Monaco	13	6	4	3	+12	22
5	Rennes	14	5	4	5	+1	19
6	Nantes	14	5	4	5	-2	19
7	Montpellier	13	4	6	3	-1	18
8	Angers	14	3	6	5	-2	15
9	Bordeaux	15	4	3	8	-6	15
10	Guingamp	13	4	2	7	-9	14
11	St Etienne	14	4	2	8	-12	14
12	Nice	13	3	4	6	-8	13
13	Amiens	14	3	2	9	-9	11
14	Caen	13	3	2	8	-11	11
15	Lille	14	3	2	9	-13	11
16	Metz	14	2	3	9	-13	9
17	Toulouse	14	2	3	9	-13	9
18	Strasbourg	13	2	3	8	-17	9
19	Troyes	13	2	1	10	-13	7
20	Dijon	13	1	3	9	-23	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.