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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Inter

S S U T T

0–1

Full-time

Roma

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 56%

64%

48%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

61%

39%

Both score Ø 50%

52%

48%

Average goals

3,2

2,4

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,04 xG 1,93

69% Possession 31%

17 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 1. · Roma 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	33	21	8	4	+40	+31.5	71
2	Napoli	33	21	8	4	+27	+19.6	71
3	Atalanta	33	19	7	7	+36	+23.9	64
4	Bologna	33	16	12	5	+15	+11.9	60
5	Juventus	33	15	14	4	+18	+13.2	59
6	Lazio	33	17	8	8	+12	+13.8	59
7	Roma	33	16	9	8	+16	+11.6	57
8	Fiorentina	33	16	8	9	+18	+5.2	56
9	Milan	34	15	9	10	+15	+19.4	54
10	Torino	33	10	13	10	+1	-14.8	43
11	Como	34	11	9	14	-4	+2.8	42
12	Udinese	33	11	7	15	-12	-9.0	40
13	Genoa	34	9	12	13	-12	-8.1	39
14	Verona	33	9	5	19	-30	-16.9	32
15	Parma	33	6	13	14	-13	-15.3	31
16	Cagliari	33	7	9	17	-16	-12.2	30
17	Lecce	33	6	8	19	-32	-21.9	26
18	Venezia	34	4	13	17	-21	-17.5	25
19	Empoli	33	4	13	16	-26	-16.4	25
20	Monza	33	2	9	22	-32	-20.8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	12	3	1	+19	+15.6	39
2	Napoli	16	12	2	2	+15	+14.9	38
3	Bologna	17	10	6	1	+17	+14.8	36
4	Roma	17	11	2	4	+19	+10.5	35
5	Juventus	17	9	7	1	+12	+8.6	34
6	Fiorentina	17	10	4	3	+12	+8.1	34
7	Atalanta	16	8	4	4	+12	+10.5	28
8	Milan	17	7	7	3	+10	+9.5	28
9	Lazio	16	7	7	2	+8	+10.2	28
10	Como	17	7	5	5	+2	+2.1	26
11	Torino	16	6	6	4	+3	-6.5	24
12	Udinese	16	7	2	7	-3	-4.0	23
13	Genoa	17	5	7	5	-2	-1.9	22
14	Parma	17	5	5	7	-2	-2.8	20
15	Cagliari	17	5	4	8	-6	-1.7	19
16	Venezia	17	4	5	8	-5	-2.4	17
17	Lecce	17	3	6	8	-18	-8.4	15
18	Verona	16	4	3	9	-19	-4.3	15
19	Empoli	16	1	7	8	-15	-7.8	10
20	Monza	17	1	5	11	-12	-6.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+24	+13.4	36
2	Napoli	17	9	6	2	+12	+4.7	33
3	Inter	17	9	5	3	+21	+15.8	32
4	Lazio	17	10	1	6	+4	+3.7	31
5	Milan	17	8	2	7	+5	+9.9	26
6	Juventus	16	6	7	3	+6	+4.6	25
7	Bologna	16	6	6	4	-2	-2.9	24
8	Fiorentina	16	6	4	6	+6	-2.9	22
9	Roma	16	5	7	4	-3	+1.1	22
10	Torino	17	4	7	6	-2	-8.3	19
11	Udinese	17	4	5	8	-9	-5.0	17
12	Genoa	17	4	5	8	-10	-6.2	17
13	Verona	17	5	2	10	-11	-12.6	17
14	Como	17	4	4	9	-6	+0.7	16
15	Empoli	17	3	6	8	-11	-8.6	15
16	Cagliari	16	2	5	9	-10	-10.4	11
17	Parma	16	1	8	7	-11	-12.5	11
18	Lecce	16	3	2	11	-14	-13.5	11
19	Venezia	17	0	8	9	-16	-15.1	8
20	Monza	16	1	4	11	-20	-14.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.