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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Arsenal

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

100%

25%

Points per game

3,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

2,8

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

22 Shots 4

9 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 1. · Aston Villa 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Man City	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+3	8
6	Fulham	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
8	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	-2	7
9	Brentford	5	1	3	1	+3	6
10	Newcastle	4	1	3	0	+2	6
11	Man United	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Liverpool	4	1	2	1	+8	5
13	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Nott'm Forest	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Everton	5	0	3	2	-2	3
16	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	-4	3
17	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Bournemouth	4	1	0	3	-14	3
19	Wolves	4	0	2	2	-2	2
20	Leicester	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+9	4
7	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+4	4
8	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Wolves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Everton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
7	Chelsea	3	1	0	2	-3	3
8	Man United	2	1	0	1	-3	3
9	Newcastle	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Brentford	3	0	2	1	-1	2
11	Everton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
12	Liverpool	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Leeds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Leicester	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.