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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Aston Villa

T S S T T

2–4

Full-time

Arsenal

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 55%

36%

73%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

55%

59%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,2

2,1

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,51 xG 3,28

33% Possession 67%

7 Shots 20

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 9

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 4

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 11. · Arsenal 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	23	16	3	4	+36	+6.7	51
2	Arsenal	22	16	3	3	+26	+1.5	51
3	Man United	23	14	4	5	+10	+0.1	46
4	Newcastle	22	10	11	1	+22	+0.7	41
5	Tottenham	23	12	3	8	+7	-1.8	39
6	Brighton	21	10	5	6	+11	+3.9	35
7	Fulham	23	10	5	8	+4	+0.3	35
8	Brentford	22	8	10	4	+7	+1.9	34
9	Liverpool	21	9	5	7	+8	+1.7	32
10	Chelsea	22	8	7	7	+1	+0.8	31
11	Aston Villa	22	8	4	10	-8	-3.2	28
12	Crystal Palace	22	6	7	9	-10	-4.6	25
13	Leicester	22	7	3	12	-2	+0.0	24
14	Nott'm Forest	22	6	6	10	-20	-0.9	24
15	Wolves	22	6	5	11	-14	-2.2	23
16	West Ham	22	5	5	12	-8	+1.9	20
17	Leeds	22	4	7	11	-10	-0.1	19
18	Everton	22	4	6	12	-14	-2.9	18
19	Bournemouth	22	4	6	12	-24	-1.6	18
20	Southampton	22	4	3	15	-22	-1.9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	12	10	1	1	+28	+6.6	31
2	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+13	+2.3	26
3	Man United	11	8	2	1	+13	+2.1	26
4	Liverpool	11	7	3	1	+16	+1.7	24
5	Newcastle	11	6	5	0	+13	+0.0	23
6	Brentford	11	6	4	1	+13	+1.5	22
7	Tottenham	11	7	0	4	+7	+0.1	21
8	Fulham	12	6	3	3	+4	+1.0	21
9	Chelsea	10	5	3	2	+6	+0.7	18
10	Nott'm Forest	11	5	3	3	+2	-0.5	18
11	Brighton	10	5	2	3	+7	+1.3	17
12	Aston Villa	11	5	2	4	+2	-0.9	17
13	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-5	-3.9	16
14	West Ham	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.9	14
15	Wolves	11	4	2	5	-5	+0.1	14
16	Leeds	11	3	4	4	-1	+0.8	13
17	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-1	-0.3	13
18	Leicester	11	3	3	5	+2	-0.8	12
19	Everton	11	3	2	6	-4	+0.8	11
20	Southampton	11	1	3	7	-9	-0.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	8	1	2	+13	-0.8	25
2	Man City	11	6	2	3	+8	+0.0	20
3	Man United	12	6	2	4	-3	-2.0	20
4	Newcastle	11	4	6	1	+9	+0.7	18
5	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+4	+2.6	18
6	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+0	-2.0	18
7	Fulham	11	4	2	5	+0	-0.7	14
8	Chelsea	12	3	4	5	-5	+0.1	13
9	Leicester	11	4	0	7	-4	+0.9	12
10	Brentford	11	2	6	3	-6	+0.4	12
11	Aston Villa	11	3	2	6	-10	-2.3	11
12	Crystal Palace	10	2	3	5	-5	-0.7	9
13	Wolves	11	2	3	6	-9	-2.3	9
14	Southampton	11	3	0	8	-13	-1.5	9
15	Liverpool	10	2	2	6	-8	-0.1	8
16	Everton	11	1	4	6	-10	-3.7	7
17	West Ham	11	1	3	7	-7	+0.0	6
18	Leeds	11	1	3	7	-9	-0.9	6
19	Nott'm Forest	11	1	3	7	-22	-0.4	6
20	Bournemouth	11	1	2	8	-23	-1.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.