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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Aston Villa

T S S S T

0–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 28/27 matches

Win Ø 49%

39%

59%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

61%

52%

Both score Ø 44%

50%

37%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

47% Possession 53%

8 Shots 10

1 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 9. · Arsenal 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	29	22	4	3	+50	70
2	Liverpool	29	21	6	2	+55	69
3	Chelsea	28	17	8	3	+38	59
4	Arsenal	27	16	3	8	+12	51
5	Man United	29	14	8	7	+8	50
6	West Ham	29	14	6	9	+12	48
7	Tottenham	28	15	3	10	+9	48
8	Wolves	30	14	4	12	+5	46
9	Aston Villa	28	11	3	14	+2	36
10	Southampton	29	8	11	10	-9	35
11	Crystal Palace	29	7	13	9	+1	34
12	Leicester	26	9	6	11	-5	33
13	Brighton	29	7	12	10	-10	33
14	Newcastle	29	7	10	12	-17	31
15	Brentford	29	8	6	15	-13	30
16	Leeds	30	7	8	15	-33	29
17	Everton	27	7	4	16	-18	25
18	Watford	29	6	4	19	-26	22
19	Burnley	27	3	12	12	-16	21
20	Norwich	29	4	5	20	-45	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	3	0	+30	36
2	Man City	14	11	1	2	+30	34
3	Arsenal	15	10	2	3	+12	32
4	West Ham	15	8	3	4	+7	27
5	Man United	15	8	3	4	+6	27
6	Chelsea	13	7	5	1	+18	26
7	Tottenham	13	8	1	4	+8	25
8	Southampton	15	5	7	3	+6	22
9	Leicester	13	6	3	4	+4	21
10	Wolves	15	6	2	7	+1	20
11	Crystal Palace	15	4	7	4	+5	19
12	Everton	14	6	1	7	+0	19
13	Aston Villa	13	5	3	5	+4	18
14	Newcastle	14	4	6	4	-5	18
15	Brentford	15	5	2	8	-3	17
16	Leeds	15	4	4	7	-12	16
17	Brighton	15	3	5	7	-10	14
18	Burnley	13	2	6	5	-6	12
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-21	9
20	Watford	14	2	1	11	-20	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	11	3	1	+20	36
2	Liverpool	15	10	3	2	+25	33
3	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+20	33
4	Wolves	15	8	2	5	+4	26
5	Man United	14	6	5	3	+2	23
6	Tottenham	15	7	2	6	+1	23
7	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+5	21
8	Arsenal	12	6	1	5	+0	19
9	Brighton	14	4	7	3	+0	19
10	Aston Villa	15	6	0	9	-2	18
11	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	15
12	Watford	15	4	3	8	-6	15
13	Brentford	14	3	4	7	-10	13
14	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-12	13
15	Southampton	14	3	4	7	-15	13
16	Leeds	15	3	4	8	-21	13
17	Leicester	13	3	3	7	-9	12
18	Burnley	14	1	6	7	-10	9
19	Norwich	14	2	2	10	-24	8
20	Everton	13	1	3	9	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.