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Serie A

Referee: F Fourneau

Frosinone

T S U S U

1–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Frosinone Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

40%

60%

Points per game

1,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 70%

80%

60%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

1,6

2,2

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,71 xG 1,47

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 7

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 10

2 Offside 5

6 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Frosinone 9. · Fiorentina 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	6	5	0	1	+12	+8.4	15
2	Milan	6	5	0	1	+5	+3.4	15
3	Juventus	6	4	1	1	+6	+6.3	13
4	Atalanta	6	4	0	2	+6	+4.0	12
5	Napoli	6	3	2	1	+6	+8.8	11
6	Lecce	6	3	2	1	+3	-2.6	11
7	Fiorentina	5	3	1	1	+2	-2.8	10
8	Sassuolo	6	3	0	3	-1	-4.2	9
9	Frosinone	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.2	8
10	Torino	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.6	8
11	Lazio	6	2	1	3	-1	-1.0	7
12	Verona	6	2	1	3	-2	-3.3	7
13	Bologna	5	1	3	1	-1	+0.1	6
14	Roma	5	1	2	2	+5	+4.2	5
15	Monza	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.3	5
16	Genoa	5	1	1	3	-4	-2.3	4
17	Salernitana	6	0	3	3	-6	-6.1	3
18	Udinese	6	0	3	3	-8	-2.4	3
19	Empoli	6	1	0	5	-12	-4.1	3
20	Cagliari	6	0	2	4	-7	-4.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	3	0	1	+9	+6.8	9
2	Lecce	3	3	0	0	+4	+1.2	9
3	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
4	Atalanta	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.9	6
5	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+4	+6.6	6
6	Milan	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.9	6
7	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.6	6
8	Frosinone	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.0	6
9	Torino	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.4	5
10	Roma	3	1	1	1	+6	+3.0	4
11	Monza	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
12	Fiorentina	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
13	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.3	4
14	Verona	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.8	4
15	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.2	4
16	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.9	3
17	Salernitana	3	0	2	1	-3	-1.0	2
18	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.5	1
19	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.7	1
20	Udinese	3	0	1	2	-5	+0.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	4	3	0	1	+1	+0.5	9
2	Juventus	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.8	6
3	Inter	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
4	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.1	6
5	Fiorentina	3	2	0	1	+1	-4.3	6
6	Napoli	3	1	2	0	+2	+2.2	5
7	Genoa	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.7	3
8	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.3	3
9	Torino	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.0	3
10	Verona	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.6	3
11	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-3	-4.8	3
12	Bologna	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
13	Frosinone	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
14	Lecce	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.8	2
15	Udinese	3	0	2	1	-3	-3.1	2
16	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.2	1
17	Salernitana	3	0	1	2	-3	-5.1	1
18	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.4	1
19	Monza	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.7	1
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-9	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.