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Serie A

Referee: P Giacomelli

Milan

T S S T T

1–3

Full-time

Fiorentina

T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

20%

80%

Both score Ø 50%

20%

80%

Average goals

1,6

3,4

Scored

0,6

1,6

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%

7 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 15. · Fiorentina 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Juventus	6	5	1	0	+6	16
3	Atalanta	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	Napoli	6	4	0	2	+5	12
5	Roma	6	3	2	1	+2	11
6	Lazio	6	3	1	2	+7	10
7	Cagliari	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Torino	5	3	0	2	+1	9
9	Bologna	6	2	2	2	+0	8
10	Udinese	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Sassuolo	6	2	0	4	-1	6
12	Verona	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Brescia	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Parma	5	2	0	3	-2	6
15	Milan	5	2	0	3	-2	6
16	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
17	Fiorentina	5	1	2	2	-1	5
18	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-6	5
19	Spal	6	1	0	5	-8	3
20	Sampdoria	6	1	0	5	-10	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Lazio	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Torino	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Udinese	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	Roma	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Fiorentina	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Genoa	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Milan	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Spal	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Parma	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Sampdoria	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Atalanta	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Brescia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Lecce	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Inter	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Roma	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Cagliari	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Brescia	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Lecce	3	2	0	1	-1	6
9	Bologna	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Verona	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Lazio	3	1	0	2	+1	3
12	Parma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Milan	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-6	1
18	Sassuolo	3	0	0	3	-4	0
19	Sampdoria	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Spal	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.