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Serie A

Referee: Michael Fabbri

Milan

U T S S U

5–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 45%

46%

43%

Points per game

1,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

46%

49%

Both score Ø 50%

51%

49%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

55% Possession 45%

17 Shots 10

10 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 1

3 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Fiorentina 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	38	30	5	3	+62	95
2	Napoli	37	27	7	3	+47	88
3	Roma	37	22	8	7	+32	74
4	Lazio	37	21	9	7	+41	72
5	Inter	37	19	12	6	+35	69
6	Milan	37	17	10	10	+10	61
7	Atalanta	37	16	12	9	+19	60
8	Fiorentina	37	16	9	12	+12	57
9	Torino	38	13	15	10	+8	54
10	Sampdoria	37	16	6	15	-2	54
11	Sassuolo	37	11	10	16	-29	43
12	Genoa	38	11	8	19	-10	41
13	Bologna	37	11	6	20	-11	39
14	Udinese	37	11	4	22	-16	37
15	Chievo	37	9	10	18	-24	37
16	Cagliari	37	10	6	21	-29	36
17	Spal	37	7	14	16	-22	35
18	Crotone	37	9	8	20	-25	35
19	Verona	38	7	4	27	-48	25
20	Benevento	37	6	3	28	-50	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	19	16	1	2	+37	49
2	Napoli	18	13	3	2	+24	42
3	Sampdoria	19	12	3	4	+16	39
4	Inter	19	11	5	3	+21	38
5	Roma	19	11	2	6	+12	35
6	Atalanta	19	9	6	4	+12	33
7	Lazio	18	9	5	4	+25	32
8	Milan	18	9	5	4	+5	32
9	Torino	19	8	6	5	+11	30
10	Fiorentina	19	8	5	6	+5	29
11	Crotone	19	6	6	7	-2	24
12	Chievo	18	6	6	6	-3	24
13	Bologna	19	6	4	9	-1	22
14	Genoa	19	6	3	10	-4	21
15	Spal	18	4	8	6	-9	20
16	Sassuolo	18	4	7	7	-10	19
17	Cagliari	18	5	3	10	-13	18
18	Udinese	18	5	2	11	-7	17
19	Benevento	19	5	2	12	-17	17
20	Verona	19	5	1	13	-21	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	19	14	4	1	+25	46
2	Napoli	19	14	4	1	+23	46
3	Lazio	19	12	4	3	+16	40
4	Roma	18	11	6	1	+20	39
5	Inter	18	8	7	3	+14	31
6	Milan	19	8	5	6	+5	29
7	Fiorentina	18	8	4	6	+7	28
8	Atalanta	18	7	6	5	+7	27
9	Torino	19	5	9	5	-3	24
10	Sassuolo	19	7	3	9	-19	24
11	Genoa	19	5	5	9	-6	20
12	Udinese	19	6	2	11	-9	20
13	Cagliari	19	5	3	11	-16	18
14	Bologna	18	5	2	11	-10	17
15	Spal	19	3	6	10	-13	15
16	Sampdoria	18	4	3	11	-18	15
17	Chievo	19	3	4	12	-21	13
18	Crotone	18	3	2	13	-23	11
19	Verona	19	2	3	14	-27	9
20	Benevento	18	1	1	16	-33	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.