Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Elfsborg
AIK
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Djurgarden
|
25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | +30 | 56 |
| 2 |
Malmo FF
|
25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | +33 | 53 |
| 3 |
AIK
|
25 | 16 | 4 | 5 | +18 | 52 |
| 4 |
Hammarby
|
25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | +26 | 50 |
| 5 |
Norrkoping
|
25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | +24 | 46 |
| 6 |
Hacken
|
25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | +17 | 44 |
| 7 |
Goteborg
|
25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | +13 | 44 |
| 8 | Orebro | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -2 | 32 |
| 9 |
Elfsborg
|
25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | -8 | 32 |
| 10 |
Helsingborg
|
25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -19 | 24 |
| 11 |
Sirius
|
25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -18 | 22 |
| 12 |
Kalmar
|
25 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -18 | 22 |
| 13 | Ostersunds | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -19 | 21 |
| 14 | Falkenbergs | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -29 | 19 |
| 15 |
Sundsvall
|
25 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -17 | 16 |
| 16 |
AFC Eskilstuna
|
25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -31 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Hacken
Elfsborg
Elfsborg
Malmo FF
AFC Eskilstuna
Elfsborg
Elfsborg
Sirius
Sundsvall
Elfsborg
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.