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Serie A

Referee: R Abisso

Lecce

T T S T S

0–1

Full-time

Roma

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 45%

40%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

80%

67%

Both score Ø 72%

60%

83%

Average goals

3,4

3,7

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

40%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

3,4

3,8

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

2,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

10 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 11

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 14. · Roma 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Juventus	6	5	1	0	+6	16
3	Atalanta	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	Napoli	6	4	0	2	+5	12
5	Cagliari	5	3	0	2	+3	9
6	Torino	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	Roma	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Bologna	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Lazio	5	2	1	2	+3	7
10	Sassuolo	6	2	0	4	-1	6
11	Brescia	6	2	0	4	-2	6
12	Parma	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Milan	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Lecce	5	2	0	3	-5	6
15	Fiorentina	5	1	2	2	-1	5
16	Verona	5	1	2	2	-1	5
17	Genoa	5	1	2	2	-2	5
18	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	Spal	6	1	0	5	-8	3
20	Sampdoria	6	1	0	5	-10	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+3	6
4	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Torino	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Lazio	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Roma	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Fiorentina	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Genoa	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Cagliari	3	1	0	2	+0	3
11	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Milan	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Spal	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Parma	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Udinese	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Sampdoria	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Atalanta	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Brescia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Lecce	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Inter	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	Cagliari	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Brescia	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Lecce	3	2	0	1	-1	6
8	Bologna	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Roma	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Lazio	3	1	0	2	+1	3
11	Parma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Verona	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Milan	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Sassuolo	3	0	0	3	-4	0
19	Sampdoria	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Spal	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.