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Serie A
Referee: M Guida
Torino
S S S T T
2–1
Full-time
Milan
S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Torino Milan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
83%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
83%
17%
Average goals
3,5
2,0
Scored
1,7
1,2
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,3
This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
75%
0%
Both score Ø 38%
75%
0%
Average goals
3,0
1,3
Scored
1,5
0,5
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%
11 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 4
0 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 5
3 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 20
4 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Torino 10. · Milan 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 5 5 0 0 +9 15
2 Juventus 5 4 1 0 +4 13
3 Atalanta 5 3 1 1 +3 10
4 Napoli 5 3 0 2 +4 9
5 Cagliari 5 3 0 2 +3 9
6 Roma 5 2 2 1 +1 8
7 Bologna 5 2 2 1 +1 8
8 Lazio 5 2 1 2 +3 7
9 Sassuolo 5 2 0 3 +2 6
10 Torino 4 2 0 2 +0 6
11 Brescia 5 2 0 3 -1 6
12 Milan 4 2 0 2 -1 6
13 Parma 5 2 0 3 -2 6
14 Lecce 5 2 0 3 -5 6
15 Fiorentina 5 1 2 2 -1 5
16 Verona 5 1 2 2 -1 5
17 Genoa 5 1 2 2 -2 5
18 Udinese 5 1 1 3 -3 4
19 Spal 5 1 0 4 -6 3
20 Sampdoria 5 1 0 4 -8 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Torino Milan
Lyanco 🟨
8′
18′
Krzysztof Piątek 0–1
21′
🟨 Ismaël Bennacer
Simone Zaza 🟨
31′
Andrea Belotti 🟨
33′
Half-time 0–1
Cristian Ansaldi 🔁
↦ Lyanco
57′
63′
🟨 Theo Hernández
65′
🔁 Giacomo Bonaventura
↦ Rafael Leão
Alex Berenguer 🔁
↦ Simone Verdi
66′
1–1 Andrea Belotti
Tomás Rincón
72′
72′
🟨 Alessio Romagnoli
72′
🟥 Pepe Reina
2–1 Andrea Belotti
76′
77′
🟨 Gianluigi Donnarumma
78′
🔁 Ante Rebić
↦ Ismaël Bennacer
Ola Aina 🟨
81′
Koffi Djidji 🔁
↦ Ola Aina
83′
88′
🟨 Mateo Musacchio
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Torino

3-4-1-2
39 Salvatore Sirigu G
5 Armando Izzo D
4 Lyanco D
36 Gleison Bremer D
29 Lorenzo De Silvestri M
8 Daniele Baselli M
88 Tomás Rincón M
34 Ola Aina M
24 Simone Verdi F
9 Andrea Belotti F
11 Simone Zaza F
Bench (12)
25 Antonio Rosati
18 Samir Ujkani
33 Nicolas N'Koulou
30 Koffi Djidji
14 Kevin Bonifazi
15 Cristian Ansaldi
93 Diego Laxalt
23 Soualiho Meïté
20 Simone Edera
21 Alex Berenguer
22 Vincenzo Millico
10 Iago Falque

Coach: W. Mazzarri

Milan

4-3-1-2
99 Gianluigi Donnarumma G
2 Davide Calabria D
22 Mateo Musacchio D
13 Alessio Romagnoli D
19 Theo Hernández D
79 Franck Kessié M
4 Ismaël Bennacer M
10 Hakan Çalhanoğlu M
8 Suso M
9 Krzysztof Piątek F
17 Rafael Leão F
Bench (12)
25 Pepe Reina
90 Antonio Donnarumma
43 Léo Duarte
12 Andrea Conti
68 Ricardo Rodríguez
46 Matteo Gabbia
33 Rade Krunić
7 Samu Castillejo
5 Giacomo Bonaventura
20 Lucas Biglia
18 Ante Rebić
11 Fabio Borini

Coach: M. Giampaolo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,46
U
3,21
B
3,02
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,11
U2,5
1,73
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Guida · 108 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.