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Serie A
Referee: M Piccinini
Lecce
T T S
1–4
Full-time
Napoli
S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,7
4,8
Scored
0,7
2,8
Conceded
2,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,8
This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,7
5,3
Scored
0,7
3,0
Conceded
2,0
2,3
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

37% Possession 63%
8 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 10
2 Blocked shots 7
6 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 6
1 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 9
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lecce 18. · Napoli 5. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 4 4 0 0 +8 12
2 Juventus 4 3 1 0 +3 10
3 Bologna 3 2 1 0 +2 7
4 Sassuolo 4 2 0 2 +3 6
5 Napoli 3 2 0 1 +2 6
6 Cagliari 4 2 0 2 +2 6
7 Atalanta 3 2 0 1 +1 6
8 Torino 3 2 0 1 +1 6
9 Brescia 4 2 0 2 +0 6
10 Milan 4 2 0 2 -1 6
11 Roma 3 1 2 0 +2 5
12 Lazio 3 1 1 1 +2 4
13 Verona 4 1 1 2 -1 4
14 Genoa 4 1 1 2 -2 4
15 Parma 3 1 0 2 -1 3
16 Udinese 4 1 0 3 -3 3
17 Spal 4 1 0 3 -4 3
18 Lecce 3 1 0 2 -4 3
19 Fiorentina 3 0 1 2 -2 1
20 Sampdoria 3 0 0 3 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lecce Napoli
21′
🟨 Faouzi Ghoulam
28′
⚽ Fernando Llorente 0–1
Panagiotis Tachtsidis 🟨
37′
Gabriel 🟨
38′
40′
⚽ Lorenzo Insigne 0–2
45′
🟨 Eljif Elmas
Half-time 0–2
Jacopo Petriccione 🔁
↦ Panagiotis Tachtsidis
46′
Andrea Tabanelli 🟨
49′
52′
⚽ Fabián Ruiz 0–3
Lorenzo Insigne
53′
🟨 Fabián Ruiz
1–3 Marco Mancosu ⚽
61′
Gianluca Lapadula 🔁
↦ Filippo Falco
65′
Romario Benzar 🔁
↦ Andrea Rispoli
70′
73′
🔁 Hirving Lozano
↦ Arkadiusz Milik
74′
🔁 José Callejón
↦ Eljif Elmas
82′
⚽ Fernando Llorente 1–4
87′
🔁 Sebastiano Luperto
↦ Fernando Llorente
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Lecce

4-3-3
21 Gabriel G
29 Andrea Rispoli D
5 Fabio Lucioni D
13 Luca Rossettini D
27 Marco Calderoni D
37 Žan Majer M
77 Panagiotis Tachtsidis M
23 Andrea Tabanelli M
10 Filippo Falco F
8 Marco Mancosu F
17 Diego Farias F
Bench (12)
22 Mauro Vigorito
95 Marco Bleve
14 Luka Dumančić
3 Brayan Vera
6 Romario Benzar
2 Davide Riccardi
4 Jacopo Petriccione
11 Evgen Shakhov
19 Andrea La Mantia
9 Gianluca Lapadula
30 Khouma Babacar
32 Simone Lo Faso

Coach: F. Liverani

Napoli

4-4-2
25 David Ospina G
2 Kévin Malcuit D
19 Nikola Maksimović D
26 Kalidou Koulibaly D
31 Faouzi Ghoulam D
8 Fabián Ruiz M
20 Piotr Zieliński M
12 Eljif Elmas M
24 Lorenzo Insigne M
99 Arkadiusz Milik F
9 Fernando Llorente F
Bench (10)
27 Orestis Karnezis
1 Alex Meret
6 Mário Rui
22 Giovanni Di Lorenzo
23 Elseid Hysaj
13 Sebastiano Luperto
70 Gianluca Gaetano
11 Hirving Lozano
7 José Callejón
14 Dries Mertens

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
8,81
🔒
U
5,18
🔒
B ✓
1,35
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,56
🔒
U2,5
2,42
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Piccinini · 104 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.