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Serie A

Referee: G Rocchi

Spal

T T T S T

1–3

Full-time

Lecce

T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spal Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/4 matches

Win Ø 21%

17%

25%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

83%

75%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

2,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,8

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

2,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

58% Possession 42%

14 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spal 17. · Lecce 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	4	1	0	+4	13
2	Inter	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Napoli	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Roma	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Bologna	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+3	6
9	Cagliari	4	2	0	2	+2	6
10	Torino	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Brescia	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Milan	4	2	0	2	-1	6
13	Verona	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Parma	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Spal	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Lecce	4	1	0	3	-7	3
19	Sampdoria	4	1	0	3	-7	3
20	Fiorentina	4	0	2	2	-2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Inter	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Lazio	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Roma	3	1	1	1	+0	4
6	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Cagliari	3	1	0	2	+0	3
8	Spal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Milan	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Udinese	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	-2	3
15	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Atalanta	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Brescia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Parma	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Lecce	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+3	6
4	Inter	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Brescia	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Bologna	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Roma	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Parma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Verona	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Milan	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-3	3
15	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Sassuolo	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Spal	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Sampdoria	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.