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La Liga

Referee: Carlos del Cerro

Villarreal

T T S S U

5–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 44%

48%

39%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

45%

Both score Ø 42%

45%

39%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,25 xG 3,11

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 11

11 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 5

3 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Ath Bilbao 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	33	26	4	3	+49	+15.6	82
2	Ath Madrid	33	21	6	6	+34	+15.8	69
3	Real Madrid	33	21	5	7	+37	+17.5	68
4	Sociedad	34	18	8	8	+14	+5.9	62
5	Villarreal	33	16	6	11	+13	+9.4	54
6	Betis	33	15	7	11	+3	+0.5	52
7	Girona	34	13	9	12	+6	-5.1	48
8	Ath Bilbao	33	13	8	12	+10	+3.5	47
9	Osasuna	34	13	8	13	-4	-10.1	47
10	Vallecano	33	12	10	11	-2	-3.7	46
11	Mallorca	34	12	8	14	-4	-3.6	44
12	Sevilla	33	12	8	13	-8	+5.3	44
13	Celta	33	10	9	14	-8	-1.9	39
14	Almeria	34	10	6	18	-18	-8.8	36
15	Cadiz	34	8	11	15	-24	-6.5	35
16	Valladolid	33	10	5	18	-27	-13.1	35
17	Valencia	33	9	7	17	-4	-2.2	34
18	Getafe	33	8	10	15	-12	-4.0	34
19	Espanol	33	7	10	16	-16	-7.0	31
20	Elche	33	3	7	23	-39	-7.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	14	3	0	+31	+11.6	45
2	Real Madrid	16	11	4	1	+26	+15.1	37
3	Ath Madrid	17	11	3	3	+22	+13.6	36
4	Girona	17	10	3	4	+11	+2.7	33
5	Villarreal	16	10	2	4	+12	+9.4	32
6	Sociedad	17	9	5	3	+8	+7.5	32
7	Vallecano	17	8	5	4	+6	-0.2	29
8	Mallorca	17	8	5	4	+6	+2.3	29
9	Almeria	17	9	2	6	+4	+0.4	29
10	Betis	16	8	4	4	+7	+1.2	28
11	Osasuna	17	9	1	7	+0	-2.0	28
12	Valencia	17	7	4	6	+7	+4.0	25
13	Sevilla	17	7	4	6	+0	+10.5	25
14	Ath Bilbao	17	7	3	7	+7	-0.2	24
15	Valladolid	16	7	3	6	-3	-0.8	24
16	Celta	16	6	5	5	+5	+3.2	23
17	Getafe	17	6	5	6	+0	+0.7	23
18	Cadiz	17	5	6	6	-7	-0.8	21
19	Espanol	16	4	5	7	-6	+2.4	17
20	Elche	16	2	4	10	-12	+2.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	12	1	3	+18	+4.0	37
2	Ath Madrid	16	10	3	3	+12	+2.2	33
3	Real Madrid	17	10	1	6	+11	+2.4	31
4	Sociedad	17	9	3	5	+6	-1.6	30
5	Betis	17	7	3	7	-4	-0.7	24
6	Ath Bilbao	16	6	5	5	+3	+3.7	23
7	Villarreal	17	6	4	7	+1	-0.0	22
8	Osasuna	17	4	7	6	-4	-8.1	19
9	Sevilla	16	5	4	7	-8	-5.2	19
10	Vallecano	16	4	5	7	-8	-3.6	17
11	Celta	17	4	4	9	-13	-5.1	16
12	Girona	17	3	6	8	-5	-7.8	15
13	Mallorca	17	4	3	10	-10	-5.9	15
14	Espanol	17	3	5	9	-10	-9.4	14
15	Cadiz	17	3	5	9	-17	-5.8	14
16	Getafe	16	2	5	9	-12	-4.8	11
17	Valladolid	17	3	2	12	-24	-12.2	11
18	Valencia	16	2	3	11	-11	-6.2	9
19	Almeria	17	1	4	12	-22	-9.2	7
20	Elche	17	1	3	13	-27	-9.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.