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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Quintero

Villarreal

S T U S S

3–0

Full-time

Alaves

T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,3

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 11/12 matches

Win Ø 44%

55%

33%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

73%

58%

Both score Ø 71%

91%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,52 xG 0,50

63% Possession 37%

13 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

7 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 21

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 4. · Alaves 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+29	+16.1	33
2	Real Madrid	12	8	3	1	+14	+11.1	27
3	Ath Madrid	12	6	5	1	+11	+9.6	23
4	Villarreal	11	6	3	2	+1	+3.5	21
5	Osasuna	13	6	3	4	-3	-3.6	21
6	Ath Bilbao	12	5	4	3	+6	+5.0	19
7	Betis	12	5	4	3	+2	+4.1	19
8	Mallorca	12	5	3	4	+1	+3.2	18
9	Vallecano	12	4	4	4	+0	-0.3	16
10	Celta	12	5	1	6	-2	+2.9	16
11	Sociedad	12	4	3	5	+0	+2.1	15
12	Girona	12	4	3	5	-2	+3.5	15
13	Sevilla	12	4	3	5	-5	-2.4	15
14	Alaves	12	4	1	7	-5	-3.6	13
15	Las Palmas	13	3	3	7	-6	-12.1	12
16	Leganes	12	2	5	5	-4	-10.5	11
17	Getafe	12	1	7	4	-2	+1.8	10
18	Espanol	12	3	1	8	-11	-10.9	10
19	Valladolid	12	2	2	8	-15	-9.5	8
20	Valencia	11	1	4	6	-9	-9.8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	7	6	0	1	+11	+9.4	18
2	Osasuna	7	5	1	1	+5	+4.3	16
3	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	+15	+9.3	15
4	Ath Madrid	6	4	2	0	+10	+11.9	14
5	Celta	7	4	1	2	+4	+3.8	13
6	Betis	6	4	1	1	+4	+7.3	13
7	Ath Bilbao	7	3	3	1	+5	+3.2	12
8	Girona	6	3	1	2	+2	+2.8	10
9	Alaves	6	3	1	2	+0	-2.4	10
10	Mallorca	6	2	3	1	+1	+1.2	9
11	Espanol	6	3	0	3	-1	-1.0	9
12	Sevilla	6	3	0	3	-2	+1.6	9
13	Getafe	6	1	5	0	+2	+5.6	8
14	Vallecano	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.1	8
15	Villarreal	5	2	2	1	-1	-0.5	8
16	Leganes	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.1	7
17	Las Palmas	6	1	3	2	-1	-3.8	6
18	Valencia	5	1	2	2	+0	-1.2	5
19	Valladolid	6	1	2	3	-2	-1.4	5
20	Sociedad	6	1	1	4	-3	+1.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	7	6	0	1	+14	+6.9	18
2	Villarreal	6	4	1	1	+2	+4.0	13
3	Sociedad	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.3	11
4	Real Madrid	5	2	3	0	+3	+1.6	9
5	Ath Madrid	6	2	3	1	+1	-2.3	9
6	Mallorca	6	3	0	3	+0	+2.0	9
7	Vallecano	6	2	2	2	+0	-4.4	8
8	Ath Bilbao	5	2	1	2	+1	+1.7	7
9	Betis	6	1	3	2	-2	-3.2	6
10	Sevilla	6	1	3	2	-3	-4.0	6
11	Las Palmas	7	2	0	5	-5	-8.3	6
12	Girona	6	1	2	3	-4	+0.6	5
13	Osasuna	6	1	2	3	-8	-8.0	5
14	Leganes	7	0	4	3	-5	-10.6	4
15	Alaves	6	1	0	5	-5	-1.3	3
16	Celta	5	1	0	4	-6	-0.9	3
17	Valladolid	6	1	0	5	-13	-8.1	3
18	Getafe	6	0	2	4	-4	-3.8	2
19	Valencia	6	0	2	4	-9	-8.6	2
20	Espanol	6	0	1	5	-10	-9.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.