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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero

Alaves

T S T T T

2–3

Full-time

Valladolid

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Valladolid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

2,0

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

33%

11%

Points per game

1,1

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,2

0,6

Conceded

1,7

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,49 xG 2,50

62% Possession 38%

10 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 14

6 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 13. · Valladolid 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	8	0	1	+19	+11.2	24
2	Real Madrid	9	6	3	0	+13	+10.1	21
3	Ath Madrid	9	4	5	0	+8	+5.1	17
4	Villarreal	9	5	2	2	+0	+3.2	17
5	Osasuna	9	4	3	2	-1	-1.8	15
6	Ath Bilbao	9	4	2	3	+3	+0.8	14
7	Mallorca	9	4	2	3	+1	+2.4	14
8	Vallecano	9	3	4	2	+2	-1.1	13
9	Celta	9	4	1	4	+1	+1.2	13
10	Betis	9	3	3	3	+0	+5.5	12
11	Girona	9	3	3	3	-1	+3.5	12
12	Sevilla	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.3	12
13	Alaves	9	3	1	5	-4	-1.3	10
14	Espanol	9	3	1	5	-4	-9.5	10
15	Sociedad	9	2	3	4	-1	-0.2	9
16	Getafe	9	1	5	3	-1	+0.5	8
17	Leganes	9	1	5	3	-4	-5.3	8
18	Valencia	9	1	3	5	-8	-8.6	6
19	Valladolid	9	1	2	6	-14	-7.9	5
20	Las Palmas	9	0	3	6	-8	-9.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	5	0	0	+11	+7.5	15
2	Osasuna	5	4	1	0	+5	+2.4	13
3	Celta	5	3	1	1	+4	+1.5	10
4	Betis	5	3	1	1	+3	+5.9	10
5	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.5	9
6	Espanol	5	3	0	2	+1	-1.6	9
7	Sevilla	5	3	0	2	+0	+1.9	9
8	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+6	+6.0	8
9	Ath Bilbao	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.0	8
10	Girona	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.6	7
11	Getafe	5	1	4	0	+2	+3.9	7
12	Alaves	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.0	7
13	Villarreal	4	2	1	1	-1	+0.6	7
14	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.8	5
15	Valencia	4	1	2	1	+1	-1.7	5
16	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.2	5
17	Valladolid	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.1	5
18	Sociedad	5	1	1	3	-1	+1.1	4
19	Leganes	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.6	4
20	Las Palmas	5	0	3	2	-2	-4.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+10	+5.8	15
2	Villarreal	5	3	1	1	+1	+2.6	10
3	Ath Madrid	5	2	3	0	+2	-0.9	9
4	Mallorca	5	3	0	2	+1	+2.6	9
5	Vallecano	5	2	2	1	+1	-3.0	8
6	Real Madrid	4	1	3	0	+2	+2.6	6
7	Ath Bilbao	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.8	6
8	Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.4	5
9	Girona	5	1	2	2	-3	+1.0	5
10	Leganes	5	0	4	1	-2	-4.7	4
11	Sevilla	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.5	3
12	Celta	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.2	3
13	Alaves	5	1	0	4	-4	-0.3	3
14	Betis	4	0	2	2	-3	-0.4	2
15	Osasuna	4	0	2	2	-6	-4.3	2
16	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-3	-3.5	1
17	Espanol	4	0	1	3	-5	-7.9	1
18	Valencia	5	0	1	4	-9	-7.0	1
19	Las Palmas	4	0	0	4	-6	-4.9	0
20	Valladolid	4	0	0	4	-13	-7.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.