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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero Lopez

Alaves

S T S S T

1–1

Full-time

Villarreal

U T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 28%

30%

26%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

35%

70%

Both score Ø 61%

43%

78%

Average goals

2,3

3,4

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,84 xG 0,95

50% Possession 50%

17 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 9

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 11. · Villarreal 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	23	18	4	1	+33	+20.4	58
2	Girona	23	17	5	1	+27	+9.6	56
3	Barcelona	23	15	5	3	+17	+26.9	50
4	Ath Madrid	23	15	3	5	+20	+12.8	48
5	Ath Bilbao	23	13	6	4	+21	+17.2	45
6	Betis	24	9	11	4	+3	-2.5	38
7	Sociedad	23	9	10	4	+11	+1.7	37
8	Valencia	23	10	5	8	+2	-1.8	35
9	Las Palmas	23	9	5	9	+3	-13.8	32
10	Getafe	23	7	9	7	-2	-5.9	30
11	Alaves	23	7	5	11	-7	+2.6	26
12	Osasuna	23	7	5	11	-10	-4.5	26
13	Vallecano	23	5	9	9	-10	-2.8	24
14	Villarreal	23	6	6	11	-12	-4.4	24
15	Sevilla	23	4	8	11	-8	-10.3	20
16	Celta	23	4	8	11	-8	-3.0	20
17	Mallorca	23	3	11	9	-11	-4.8	20
18	Cadiz	24	2	11	11	-18	-15.4	17
19	Granada	23	2	6	15	-22	-12.9	12
20	Almeria	23	0	6	17	-29	-9.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	12	11	1	0	+15	+13.1	34
2	Ath Bilbao	12	9	2	1	+19	+16.0	29
3	Real Madrid	11	9	2	0	+19	+15.5	29
4	Girona	12	9	2	1	+16	+6.0	29
5	Barcelona	12	9	0	3	+9	+13.1	27
6	Valencia	11	7	2	2	+9	+3.7	23
7	Betis	12	6	5	1	+7	+6.0	23
8	Getafe	11	6	3	2	+3	-1.8	21
9	Sociedad	11	5	5	1	+7	+0.7	20
10	Las Palmas	11	5	3	3	+5	-5.6	18
11	Alaves	11	5	1	5	-2	+6.5	16
12	Osasuna	12	4	3	5	-5	-0.0	15
13	Mallorca	11	2	7	2	+0	+0.6	13
14	Villarreal	12	3	3	6	-4	+2.8	12
15	Cadiz	12	2	6	4	-6	+1.3	12
16	Sevilla	12	2	5	5	-3	-2.9	11
17	Granada	12	2	5	5	-6	-3.8	11
18	Celta	12	2	4	6	-7	+4.1	10
19	Vallecano	11	1	5	5	-10	-2.1	8
20	Almeria	11	0	5	6	-11	+1.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	12	9	2	1	+14	+4.9	29
2	Girona	11	8	3	0	+11	+3.6	27
3	Barcelona	11	6	5	0	+8	+13.8	23
4	Sociedad	12	4	5	3	+4	+1.0	17
5	Ath Bilbao	11	4	4	3	+2	+1.2	16
6	Vallecano	12	4	4	4	+0	-0.7	16
7	Betis	12	3	6	3	-4	-8.5	15
8	Ath Madrid	11	4	2	5	+5	-0.4	14
9	Las Palmas	12	4	2	6	-2	-8.2	14
10	Valencia	12	3	3	6	-7	-5.5	12
11	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	-8	-7.2	12
12	Osasuna	11	3	2	6	-5	-4.5	11
13	Celta	11	2	4	5	-1	-7.1	10
14	Alaves	12	2	4	6	-5	-3.9	10
15	Getafe	12	1	6	5	-5	-4.1	9
16	Sevilla	11	2	3	6	-5	-7.3	9
17	Mallorca	12	1	4	7	-11	-5.4	7
18	Cadiz	12	0	5	7	-12	-16.7	5
19	Granada	11	0	1	10	-16	-9.1	1
20	Almeria	12	0	1	11	-18	-10.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.