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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero

Villarreal

S U S T S

3–1

Full-time

Las Palmas

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Las Palmas

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

57%

Points per game

2,0

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

86%

57%

Both score Ø 93%

100%

86%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

2,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,79 xG 0,86

42% Possession 58%

17 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 6. · Las Palmas 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	7	0	1	+16	+9.5	21
2	Real Madrid	8	5	3	0	+11	+10.8	18
3	Ath Madrid	8	4	4	0	+8	+5.6	16
4	Ath Bilbao	8	4	2	2	+4	-0.3	14
5	Mallorca	8	4	2	2	+2	+1.5	14
6	Villarreal	7	4	2	1	+0	+0.6	14
7	Osasuna	8	4	2	2	-1	-1.4	14
8	Betis	8	3	3	2	+1	+6.4	12
9	Vallecano	8	2	4	2	+1	-0.6	10
10	Celta	8	3	1	4	+0	+1.9	10
11	Alaves	8	3	1	4	-1	+0.4	10
12	Girona	8	2	3	3	-2	+4.6	9
13	Sevilla	8	2	3	3	-2	+0.5	9
14	Sociedad	8	2	2	4	-1	-0.7	8
15	Getafe	8	1	4	3	-1	-0.0	7
16	Leganes	8	1	4	3	-4	-5.1	7
17	Espanol	8	2	1	5	-5	-8.6	7
18	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-8	-8.9	5
19	Valladolid	8	1	2	5	-13	-8.4	5
20	Las Palmas	7	0	3	4	-5	-7.7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Osasuna	5	4	1	0	+5	+2.4	13
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+9	+8.2	12
3	Celta	5	3	1	1	+4	+1.5	10
4	Betis	5	3	1	1	+3	+5.9	10
5	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.5	9
6	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+6	+6.0	8
7	Ath Bilbao	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.0	8
8	Alaves	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
9	Getafe	4	1	3	0	+2	+3.5	6
10	Espanol	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.7	6
11	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.0	6
12	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.8	5
13	Valencia	4	1	2	1	+1	-1.7	5
14	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.2	5
15	Valladolid	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.6	5
16	Girona	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.7	4
17	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	-3	-1.4	4
18	Las Palmas	4	0	3	1	-1	-4.8	3
19	Sociedad	4	1	0	3	-1	+0.7	3
20	Leganes	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	4	0	1	+7	+4.1	12
2	Villarreal	4	3	1	0	+3	+2.0	10
3	Mallorca	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.7	9
4	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.4	8
5	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.7	6
6	Real Madrid	4	1	3	0	+2	+2.6	6
7	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.5	5
8	Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.4	5
9	Girona	5	1	2	2	-3	+1.0	5
10	Leganes	5	0	4	1	-2	-4.7	4
11	Sevilla	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.5	3
12	Alaves	5	1	0	4	-4	-0.3	3
13	Betis	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.4	2
14	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-3	-3.5	1
15	Espanol	4	0	1	3	-5	-7.9	1
16	Osasuna	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.8	1
17	Celta	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.4	0
18	Las Palmas	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.9	0
19	Valencia	4	0	0	4	-9	-7.2	0
20	Valladolid	4	0	0	4	-13	-7.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.