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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola

Real Madrid

S S T S S

2–3

Full-time

Villarreal

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 58%

67%

48%

Points per game

2,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

59%

37%

Both score Ø 46%

59%

33%

Average goals

2,9

2,1

Scored

2,1

1,3

Conceded

0,8

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,46 xG 1,50

49% Possession 51%

18 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 7

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Villarreal 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	27	23	2	2	+44	+7.9	71
2	Real Madrid	27	18	5	4	+36	+13.4	59
3	Ath Madrid	27	16	6	5	+24	+8.6	54
4	Sociedad	28	15	6	7	+11	+2.6	51
5	Betis	27	13	6	8	+7	+3.0	45
6	Villarreal	27	13	5	9	+10	+5.0	44
7	Ath Bilbao	28	11	7	10	+9	+2.9	40
8	Osasuna	28	10	8	10	-4	-7.6	38
9	Vallecano	27	9	10	8	+1	-1.8	37
10	Celta	28	9	9	10	-3	+2.7	36
11	Girona	27	9	7	11	+0	-2.6	34
12	Mallorca	27	9	6	12	-5	-3.5	33
13	Sevilla	28	8	8	12	-11	+3.1	32
14	Getafe	28	7	9	12	-9	-1.8	30
15	Cadiz	27	6	10	11	-19	-3.3	28
16	Valladolid	27	8	4	15	-24	-11.7	28
17	Valencia	27	7	6	14	-3	-2.5	27
18	Espanol	28	6	9	13	-12	-2.5	27
19	Almeria	27	7	6	14	-15	-3.8	27
20	Elche	28	2	7	19	-37	-8.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	11	2	0	+25	+5.2	35
2	Real Madrid	13	9	4	0	+23	+12.2	31
3	Ath Madrid	14	8	3	3	+15	+6.8	27
4	Villarreal	13	8	2	3	+9	+5.1	26
5	Sociedad	14	7	4	3	+5	+4.8	25
6	Betis	13	7	3	3	+7	+1.5	24
7	Girona	14	7	3	4	+6	+1.4	24
8	Almeria	14	7	2	5	+3	+0.5	23
9	Mallorca	14	6	4	4	+3	+1.1	22
10	Osasuna	14	7	1	6	-1	-2.9	22
11	Valencia	14	6	3	5	+8	+3.5	21
12	Ath Bilbao	14	6	3	5	+7	+0.9	21
13	Celta	14	5	5	4	+5	+3.5	20
14	Vallecano	13	5	5	3	+4	-0.1	20
15	Valladolid	13	6	2	5	-1	-0.2	20
16	Sevilla	14	5	4	5	+0	+9.0	19
17	Getafe	14	5	4	5	+0	-0.4	19
18	Cadiz	14	4	6	4	-5	+1.1	18
19	Espanol	14	3	4	7	-7	+0.8	13
20	Elche	14	1	4	9	-14	+0.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	12	0	2	+19	+2.8	36
2	Real Madrid	14	9	1	4	+13	+1.2	28
3	Ath Madrid	13	8	3	2	+9	+1.7	27
4	Sociedad	14	8	2	4	+6	-2.1	26
5	Betis	14	6	3	5	+0	+1.5	21
6	Ath Bilbao	14	5	4	5	+2	+2.0	19
7	Villarreal	14	5	3	6	+1	-0.1	18
8	Vallecano	14	4	5	5	-3	-1.6	17
9	Osasuna	14	3	7	4	-3	-4.7	16
10	Celta	14	4	4	6	-8	-0.8	16
11	Espanol	14	3	5	6	-5	-3.3	14
12	Sevilla	14	3	4	7	-11	-5.9	13
13	Mallorca	13	3	2	8	-8	-4.7	11
14	Getafe	14	2	5	7	-9	-1.4	11
15	Girona	13	2	4	7	-6	-4.0	10
16	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-14	-4.4	10
17	Valladolid	14	2	2	10	-23	-11.5	8
18	Valencia	13	1	3	9	-11	-6.0	6
19	Elche	14	1	3	10	-23	-8.4	6
20	Almeria	13	0	4	9	-18	-4.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.