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La Liga

Referee: Mateo Busquets

Villarreal

U S S U S

1–5

Full-time

Barcelona

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

2,0

3,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 80%

60%

100%

Points per game

2,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 90%

80%

100%

Both score Ø 90%

100%

80%

Average goals

3,8

4,2

Scored

2,2

3,4

Conceded

1,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+2,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,11 xG 4,08

36% Possession 64%

13 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 10

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

7 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 12

6 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Barcelona 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	+13	+7.9	15
2	Real Madrid	6	4	2	0	+10	+10.9	14
3	Ath Bilbao	7	4	1	2	+4	-0.5	13
4	Ath Madrid	5	3	2	0	+7	+7.3	11
5	Villarreal	5	3	2	0	+3	+1.5	11
6	Alaves	6	3	1	2	+2	+2.6	10
7	Osasuna	6	3	1	2	-3	-2.7	10
8	Celta	6	3	0	3	+1	+1.3	9
9	Betis	5	2	2	1	+1	+3.5	8
10	Mallorca	6	2	2	2	+0	+0.4	8
11	Vallecano	5	2	1	2	+1	-0.2	7
12	Girona	6	2	1	3	-2	+2.4	7
13	Espanol	6	2	1	3	-3	-5.8	7
14	Leganes	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.9	6
15	Sevilla	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.7	5
16	Sociedad	7	1	2	4	-4	-3.1	5
17	Valladolid	6	1	2	3	-11	-6.0	5
18	Getafe	6	0	4	2	-2	-0.5	4
19	Valencia	6	1	1	4	-5	-6.6	4
20	Las Palmas	6	0	2	4	-5	-6.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+3	+0.9	10
2	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+8	+7.8	9
3	Celta	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.0	9
4	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+6	+5.5	7
5	Betis	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.1	7
6	Alaves	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
7	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.2	7
8	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+8	+4.2	6
9	Espanol	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
10	Valladolid	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.5	5
11	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.2	5
12	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
13	Valencia	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.9	4
14	Girona	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
15	Vallecano	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.4	3
16	Getafe	3	0	3	0	+0	+1.7	3
17	Leganes	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3
18	Sevilla	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3
19	Las Palmas	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.7	2
20	Sociedad	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.7	9
2	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.9	7
3	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.7	6
4	Real Madrid	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.1	5
5	Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.4	5
6	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.8	4
7	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.6	4
8	Girona	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.6	4
9	Mallorca	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.7	3
10	Alaves	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.9	3
11	Leganes	4	0	3	1	-2	-4.5	3
12	Sevilla	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.3	2
13	Getafe	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
14	Betis	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.7	1
15	Espanol	3	0	1	2	-4	-6.1	1
16	Celta	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.4	0
17	Las Palmas	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.9	0
18	Valencia	3	0	0	3	-6	-4.8	0
19	Osasuna	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.6	0
20	Valladolid	3	0	0	3	-12	-6.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.