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Conference League
Referee: Luís Godinho
Aston Villa
U S S S T
2–1
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
2,2
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 5/7 matches
Win Ø 62%
80%
43%
Points per game
2,4
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
80%
43%
Both score Ø 49%
40%
57%
Average goals
3,8
3,4
Scored
3,0
1,7
Conceded
0,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,44 xG 0,73
64% Possession 36%
12 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 1
1 Offside 8
7 Free kicks against 12
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Oct -23 AZ Alkmaar – Aston Villa 1–4

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Luís Godinho · 162 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.