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La Liga

Referee: Juan Pulido

Celta

T T T U T

2–1

Full-time

Barcelona

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

0,7

2,3

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 52%

27%

76%

Points per game

1,1

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

49%

51%

Both score Ø 39%

51%

27%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,9

Conceded

1,4

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,66 xG 1,25

27% Possession 73%

12 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

2 Corners 4

7 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 16. · Barcelona 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	37	28	4	5	+51	+18.0	88
2	Real Madrid	38	24	6	8	+39	+17.6	78
3	Ath Madrid	38	23	8	7	+37	+16.1	77
4	Sociedad	38	21	8	9	+16	+10.0	71
5	Villarreal	38	19	7	12	+19	+9.8	64
6	Betis	37	17	8	12	+5	+1.9	59
7	Osasuna	38	15	8	15	-5	-12.3	53
8	Ath Bilbao	38	14	9	15	+4	+6.0	51
9	Mallorca	38	14	8	16	-6	-8.2	50
10	Girona	38	13	10	15	+3	-8.0	49
11	Sevilla	38	13	10	15	-7	+5.4	49
12	Vallecano	38	13	10	15	-8	-4.5	49
13	Valencia	37	11	8	18	-3	+0.9	41
14	Getafe	37	10	11	16	-11	-2.6	41
15	Cadiz	37	10	11	16	-23	-4.6	41
16	Celta	37	10	10	17	-11	-4.1	40
17	Almeria	37	11	7	19	-16	-8.6	40
18	Valladolid	37	11	6	20	-30	-16.0	39
19	Espanol	37	8	12	17	-17	-7.9	36
20	Elche	37	5	9	23	-37	-8.9	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	19	15	3	1	+33	+14.7	48
2	Real Madrid	19	13	5	1	+28	+15.2	44
3	Ath Madrid	19	13	3	3	+26	+14.3	42
4	Villarreal	19	12	3	4	+18	+10.0	39
5	Sociedad	19	11	5	3	+10	+10.6	38
6	Mallorca	19	10	5	4	+10	+2.0	35
7	Osasuna	19	11	1	7	+3	-1.0	34
8	Girona	19	10	3	6	+9	+0.6	33
9	Almeria	19	10	3	6	+7	+2.3	33
10	Vallecano	19	9	5	5	+6	+1.2	32
11	Betis	18	9	4	5	+8	+2.2	31
12	Valencia	19	8	5	6	+8	+5.2	29
13	Ath Bilbao	19	8	3	8	+7	+2.0	27
14	Getafe	19	7	6	6	+1	+3.0	27
15	Valladolid	18	8	3	7	-4	-1.1	27
16	Cadiz	19	7	6	6	-4	+1.9	27
17	Sevilla	19	7	5	7	-1	+11.9	26
18	Celta	18	6	6	6	+4	+2.6	24
19	Espanol	18	4	6	8	-8	+3.5	18
20	Elche	18	3	5	10	-11	+2.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	13	1	4	+18	+3.2	40
2	Ath Madrid	19	10	5	4	+11	+1.7	35
3	Real Madrid	19	11	1	7	+11	+2.3	34
4	Sociedad	19	10	3	6	+6	-0.6	33
5	Betis	19	8	4	7	-3	-0.3	28
6	Villarreal	19	7	4	8	+1	-0.2	25
7	Ath Bilbao	19	6	6	7	-3	+4.0	24
8	Sevilla	19	6	5	8	-6	-6.5	23
9	Osasuna	19	4	7	8	-8	-11.3	19
10	Espanol	19	4	6	9	-9	-11.3	18
11	Vallecano	19	4	5	10	-14	-5.6	17
12	Girona	19	3	7	9	-6	-8.6	16
13	Celta	19	4	4	11	-15	-6.7	16
14	Mallorca	19	4	3	12	-16	-10.3	15
15	Getafe	18	3	5	10	-12	-5.6	14
16	Cadiz	18	3	5	10	-19	-6.4	14
17	Valencia	18	3	3	12	-11	-4.2	12
18	Valladolid	19	3	3	13	-26	-14.9	12
19	Elche	19	2	4	13	-26	-11.5	10
20	Almeria	18	1	4	13	-23	-10.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.