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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Man City

U T S S S

1–0

Full-time

Newcastle

U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

6,0

Scored

3,0

5,0

Conceded

0,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,08 xG 0,29

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 0

1 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 6. · Newcastle 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.6	6
2	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+3	+4.4	4
3	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.7	4
4	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.3	4
5	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.6	3
6	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
7	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
8	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
9	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
10	Man United	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	3
11	Fulham	2	1	0	1	-2	-4.7	3
12	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
13	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.5	1
15	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
16	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
17	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
18	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.1	0
20	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.6	3
2	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.5	3
3	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
4	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.3	3
5	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
6	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
7	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
8	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
9	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
10	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
11	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
12	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
13	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.1	0
14	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
15	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
3	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.5	3
4	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
5	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
6	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
7	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
8	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
9	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
10	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
11	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
12	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
13	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.3	0
14	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
15	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.