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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Man City

S U U S S

2–0

Full-time

Newcastle

S U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 25/23 matches

Win Ø 56%

68%

43%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

68%

35%

Both score Ø 52%

60%

43%

Average goals

3,6

2,2

Scored

2,6

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,34 xG 0,43

56% Possession 44%

11 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Newcastle 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	25	19	3	3	+33	+6.4	60
2	Man City	25	17	4	4	+39	+9.3	55
3	Man United	24	15	4	5	+13	+2.9	49
4	Tottenham	25	14	3	8	+11	-0.4	45
5	Newcastle	23	10	11	2	+20	+0.9	41
6	Liverpool	24	11	6	7	+12	+3.4	39
7	Fulham	25	11	6	8	+5	-1.9	39
8	Brighton	22	10	5	7	+10	+5.8	35
9	Brentford	23	8	11	4	+7	+1.7	35
10	Chelsea	24	8	7	9	-2	+1.4	31
11	Aston Villa	24	9	4	11	-8	-5.7	31
12	Crystal Palace	24	6	9	9	-10	-4.6	27
13	Nott'm Forest	24	6	7	11	-24	-4.7	25
14	Leicester	24	7	3	14	-6	-3.5	24
15	Wolves	25	6	6	13	-17	-3.4	24
16	West Ham	24	6	5	13	-6	+3.1	23
17	Leeds	24	5	7	12	-10	-0.5	22
18	Everton	25	5	6	14	-19	-3.7	21
19	Bournemouth	24	5	6	13	-26	-3.0	21
20	Southampton	24	5	3	16	-22	-3.5	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	12	10	1	1	+28	+6.6	31
2	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+17	+3.8	29
3	Man United	12	9	2	1	+16	+4.9	29
4	Liverpool	12	8	3	1	+18	+3.4	27
5	Tottenham	13	9	0	4	+11	+1.6	27
6	Brentford	12	6	5	1	+13	+1.3	23
7	Newcastle	12	6	5	1	+11	+0.2	23
8	Fulham	13	6	4	3	+4	+0.6	22
9	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+2	-2.0	19
10	Chelsea	11	5	3	3	+5	+1.7	18
11	Brighton	11	5	2	4	+6	+3.2	17
12	West Ham	12	5	2	5	+3	+4.2	17
13	Aston Villa	12	5	2	5	+0	-3.6	17
14	Crystal Palace	13	4	5	4	-5	-4.1	17
15	Leeds	12	4	4	4	+0	+1.3	16
16	Everton	13	4	2	7	-5	+1.5	14
17	Wolves	12	4	2	6	-6	+0.3	14
18	Bournemouth	12	3	4	5	-4	-1.5	13
19	Leicester	12	3	3	6	+1	-1.5	12
20	Southampton	11	1	3	7	-9	-0.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	10	1	2	+16	+2.6	31
2	Man City	13	7	3	3	+11	+2.7	24
3	Man United	12	6	2	4	-3	-2.0	20
4	Newcastle	11	4	6	1	+9	+0.7	18
5	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+4	+2.6	18
6	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+0	-2.0	18
7	Fulham	12	5	2	5	+1	-2.6	17
8	Aston Villa	12	4	2	6	-8	-2.1	14
9	Chelsea	13	3	4	6	-7	-0.3	13
10	Brentford	11	2	6	3	-6	+0.4	12
11	Liverpool	12	3	3	6	-6	-0.0	12
12	Leicester	12	4	0	8	-7	-2.0	12
13	Southampton	13	4	0	9	-13	-3.0	12
14	Crystal Palace	11	2	4	5	-5	-0.5	10
15	Wolves	13	2	4	7	-11	-3.7	10
16	Bournemouth	12	2	2	8	-22	-1.5	8
17	Everton	12	1	4	7	-14	-5.2	7
18	West Ham	12	1	3	8	-9	-1.1	6
19	Leeds	12	1	3	8	-10	-1.8	6
20	Nott'm Forest	12	1	3	8	-26	-2.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.