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Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Brych

Mainz

S T T S U

3–2

Full-time

Hamburg

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,3

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 29%

43%

14%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

1,0

0,6

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

46% Possession 54%

14 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 14. · Hamburg 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	7	6	1	0	+19	19
2	Bayern Munich	7	4	2	1	+9	14
3	Hoffenheim	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	RB Leipzig	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Hannover	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	Augsburg	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	M'gladbach	7	3	2	2	-2	11
8	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	1	3	+0	10
9	Schalke 04	7	3	1	3	-1	10
10	Stuttgart	8	3	1	4	-4	10
11	Hertha	7	2	3	2	+0	9
12	Leverkusen	7	2	2	3	+2	8
13	Wolfsburg	7	1	4	2	-3	7
14	Mainz	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Freiburg	7	1	4	2	-6	7
16	Hamburg	7	2	1	4	-7	7
17	Werder Bremen	7	0	4	3	-4	4
18	FC Koln	8	0	1	7	-14	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Stuttgart	4	3	1	0	+3	10
3	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+12	9
4	M'gladbach	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Hertha	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+7	7
7	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+6	7
8	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	+3	7
10	Hannover	3	2	1	0	+3	7
11	Schalke 04	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Mainz	4	2	0	2	+1	6
13	Freiburg	4	1	3	0	+1	6
14	Hamburg	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Wolfsburg	4	0	3	1	-3	3
17	Werder Bremen	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	FC Koln	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Bayern Munich	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	+0	6
5	Hannover	4	1	2	1	+0	5
6	Hoffenheim	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Wolfsburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Werder Bremen	4	0	3	1	-1	3
10	Schalke 04	3	1	0	2	-2	3
11	Hamburg	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	M'gladbach	3	0	2	1	-5	2
13	Hertha	3	0	1	2	-3	1
14	Leverkusen	4	0	1	3	-5	1
15	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-5	1
16	Freiburg	3	0	1	2	-7	1
17	FC Koln	5	0	1	4	-10	1
18	Stuttgart	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.