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Pro League

Referee: Massimiliano Ledda

Genk

U T S S T

2–1

Full-time

Dender

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genk Dender

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,2

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Pro League · 5/7 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

1,4

0,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

80%

29%

Both score Ø 65%

100%

29%

Average goals

3,2

2,1

Scored

1,6

0,3

Conceded

1,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,19 xG 1,75

66% Possession 34%

25 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 9

10 Blocked shots 1

8 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Genk 10. · Dender 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gilloise	7	5	2	0	+12	+11.1	17
2	Gent	5	5	0	0	+8	+2.2	15
3	Anderlecht	8	4	3	1	+7	+6.0	15
4	Club Brugge	6	4	1	1	+4	+2.8	13
5	Waregem	9	4	1	4	+0	-1.9	13
6	Mechelen	7	3	3	1	+3	+0.6	12
7	St Truiden	7	3	2	2	+1	+4.7	11
8	RAAL La Louviere	8	3	1	4	-2	-5.7	10
9	Cercle Brugge	9	2	3	4	-1	+0.2	9
10	Genk	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.8	7
11	Charleroi	7	2	1	4	-2	-1.5	7
12	Westerlo	7	2	1	4	-4	-1.6	7
13	Antwerp	6	1	3	2	-2	-4.2	6
14	Standard	7	1	2	4	-6	-4.6	5
15	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	5	1	1	3	-7	-1.0	4
16	Dender	7	0	1	6	-11	-8.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gilloise	3	3	0	0	+10	+7.4	9
2	Gent	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.2	9
3	Anderlecht	5	2	2	1	+3	+4.5	8
4	Club Brugge	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.5	7
5	Waregem	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.0	7
6	RAAL La Louviere	4	2	1	1	+0	-3.2	7
7	St Truiden	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.1	6
8	Antwerp	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.5	5
9	Mechelen	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
10	Charleroi	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.9	4
11	Cercle Brugge	5	1	1	3	-2	-0.6	4
12	Westerlo	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.2	3
13	Genk	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.6	3
14	Standard	4	0	2	2	-4	-1.4	2
15	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
16	Dender	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mechelen	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.3	8
2	St. Gilloise	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.7	8
3	Anderlecht	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
4	Gent	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.1	6
5	Club Brugge	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.4	6
6	Waregem	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.9	6
7	St Truiden	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.6	5
8	Cercle Brugge	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.8	5
9	Genk	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.2	4
10	Westerlo	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.8	4
11	Charleroi	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.6	3
12	RAAL La Louviere	4	1	0	3	-2	-2.5	3
13	Standard	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.2	3
14	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.3	3
15	Antwerp	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.7	1
16	Dender	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.